Portsmouth High School RI '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 (fleet 1.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–11 (8%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 1–11 against 4.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Ridge White Classic | skipper | 1.27 | -1.46 | 1–11 | 4.8 | −2.74 | 4.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Bristol | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.2 | 0.33 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ridge White Classic | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| O'day Qualifier - SailMaine | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 1.62 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.0 | 0.71 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.3 | 0.55 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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