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O'Day Qualifier - Bristol

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 24 10 34
2 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 21 36 57
3 The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 29 44 73
4 Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 35 42 77
5 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 43 40 83
6 Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 66 52 118
7 Portsmouth High School RI Portsmouth High School RI Partriots 56 65 121
8 East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 66 65 131
9 The Williams School The Williams School Blues 74 70 144
10 Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 81 88 169
11 Bishop Hendricken High School Bishop Hendricken High School Hawks 116 MRP 104 MRP 220 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 3 2 5 1 1 1 1 3 4 21 Dixon Wixted '21
Marisa Cogswell '19
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 1 1 1 5 4 6 3 1 2 24 Hayden Earl '21 [1-9]
Colin Macgillivray '19 [1-6, 9]
Amelia Jessop '21 [7-8]
The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 4 5 4 2 2 3 5 RDG 1 29 Payton Canavan '19
Isabella De Santis '20
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 6 4 2 4 3 4 7 2 3 35 Aili Moffet '19 [1-9]
Olivia Rocchio-Giordano '21 [1-4]
Greta Shuster '21 [5-9]
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 2 3 3 6 6 8 2 7 6 43 Evan Boyd '19 [1-6, 9]
Faith Cournoyer '19 [7-8]
Ceci Bohan '20 [1-6, 9]
Ashley Breyer '20 [7-8]
Portsmouth High School RI Portsmouth High School RI Partriots 5 7 6 3 9 5 6 10 5 56 Joe Gallagher '20
Sarah Wilme '20
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 7 10 8 8 8 2 10 5 8 66 Tyler Miller '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Parker Brown '22 [3-4, 9]
Sophia Rey '22 [1-2, 9]
Eliza Taylor '19 [3-4]
Grey Aycock '20 [5-8]
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 8 6 7 7 7 10 4 6 11 66 Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-9]
Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-8]
Shannon Brecher '22 [9]
The Williams School The Williams School Blues 9 9 9 9 5 9 8 9 7 74 Mary Madaus '21 [1-9]
Elizabeth Li '21 [1-6]
Brenna Henley '20 [7-9]
Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 11 11 10 10 10 7 9 4 9 81 Jack Leys '20
Pryia Swegles '20
Bishop Hendricken High School Bishop Hendricken High School Hawks 10 8 DNF DNF 11 11 11 11 10 116 MRP No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 Tbo Antonietti '20
Wyatt Fogg '19
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 3 2 1 2 6 DSQ 3 3 4 36 Alex Dicenso '19 [1-9]
Joseph Waddy '20 [1-2]
Connor Priest '20 [3-9]
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 2 8 3 4 5 3 5 4 6 40 Alex Adams '22 [1-9]
David Sozanski '19 [1-2, 7-9]
Jenna Palmer '20 [3-6]
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 4 3 OCS 3 7 5 4 2 2 42 Alexander Runci '19 [1-9]
Maddy Kerr '19 [1-4, 9]
Dana Russell '19 [5-8]
The Prout School The Prout School Crusaders 5 7 6 5 4 4 2 6 5 44 Avery Canavan '21 [1-9]
Laura Borges '20 [1-5]
Noah Desantis '22 [6-9]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 6 4 5 8 2 6 8 10 3 52 Colin Mccabe '20 [1-6, 9]
Eliza Taylor '19 [7-8]
Stella Garcia '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Angelina Leavitt '20 [5-6, 9]
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 7 11 4 7 10 2 6 9 9 65 Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-4]
Curtis Sims '22 [5-9]
Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-4]
Portsmouth High School RI Portsmouth High School RI Partriots 8 9 9 6 3 8 9 5 8 65 Sophia Hacket '21 [1-9]
Amelia Reed '20 [1-6, 9]
Rebecca Downs Honey '19 [7-8]
The Williams School The Williams School Blues 9 6 7 9 8 7 7 7 10 70 Samantha Karlson '21 [1-4]
Philip Knowlton '22 [5-9]
Amanda Nessel '21 [1-4]
Jordy Plisic '19 [5-9]
Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 8 11 88 Lydia Bennett '20
Lily Belka '20
Bishop Hendricken High School Bishop Hendricken High School Hawks 11 5 8 11 11 9 11 11 7 104 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Bishop Hendricken High SchoolBishop Hendricken High School Hawks113355779
East Greenwich High SchoolEast Greenwich High School Avengers2244668810
Middletown High SchoolMiddletown High School Islanders3355779911
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers44668810101
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers55779911112
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens66881010113
Portsmouth High School RIPortsmouth High School RI Partriots77991111224
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings88101011335
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons99111122446
The Prout SchoolThe Prout School Crusaders10101133557
The Williams SchoolThe Williams School Blues11112244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Bishop Hendricken High SchoolBishop Hendricken High School Hawks2244668810
East Greenwich High SchoolEast Greenwich High School Avengers3355779911
Middletown High SchoolMiddletown High School Islanders44668810101
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers55779911112
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers66881010113
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens77991111224
Portsmouth High School RIPortsmouth High School RI Partriots88101011335
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings99111122446
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons10101133557
The Prout SchoolThe Prout School Crusaders11112244668
The Williams SchoolThe Williams School Blues113355779
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bishop Hendricken High School Bishop Hendricken High School No Show No Show
Hawks No Show No Show
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-9] Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-8]
Shannon Brecher '22 [9]
Avengers Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-4]
Curtis Sims '22 [5-9]		 Unregistered Sailors '22 [1-4]
Middletown High School Middletown High School Jack Leys '20 Pryia Swegles '20
Islanders Lydia Bennett '20 Lily Belka '20
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Aili Moffet '19 [1-9] Olivia Rocchio-Giordano '21 [1-4]
Greta Shuster '21 [5-9]
Quakers Alexander Runci '19 [1-9] Maddy Kerr '19 [1-4, 9]
Dana Russell '19 [5-8]
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Dixon Wixted '21 Marisa Cogswell '19
Skippers Alex Dicenso '19 [1-9] Joseph Waddy '20 [1-2]
Connor Priest '20 [3-9]
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Evan Boyd '19 [1-6, 9]
Faith Cournoyer '19 [7-8]		 Ceci Bohan '20 [1-6, 9]
Ashley Breyer '20 [7-8]
Ravens Alex Adams '22 [1-9] David Sozanski '19 [1-2, 7-9]
Jenna Palmer '20 [3-6]
Portsmouth High School RI Portsmouth High School RI Joe Gallagher '20 Sarah Wilme '20
Partriots Sophia Hacket '21 [1-9] Amelia Reed '20 [1-6, 9]
Rebecca Downs Honey '19 [7-8]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Tyler Miller '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Parker Brown '22 [3-4, 9]		 Sophia Rey '22 [1-2, 9]
Eliza Taylor '19 [3-4]
Grey Aycock '20 [5-8]
Vikings Colin Mccabe '20 [1-6, 9]
Eliza Taylor '19 [7-8]		 Stella Garcia '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Angelina Leavitt '20 [5-6, 9]
St. George's School St. George's School Hayden Earl '21 [1-9] Colin Macgillivray '19 [1-6, 9]
Amelia Jessop '21 [7-8]
Dragons Tbo Antonietti '20 Wyatt Fogg '19
The Prout School The Prout School Payton Canavan '19 Isabella De Santis '20
Crusaders Avery Canavan '21 [1-9] Laura Borges '20 [1-5]
Noah Desantis '22 [6-9]
The Williams School The Williams School Mary Madaus '21 [1-9] Elizabeth Li '21 [1-6]
Brenna Henley '20 [7-9]
Blues Samantha Karlson '21 [1-4]
Philip Knowlton '22 [5-9]		 Amanda Nessel '21 [1-4]
Jordy Plisic '19 [5-9]

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From SSW (200°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine4.6 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1017.8 hPa Rain0.73 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Portsmouth Abbey: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Portsmouth Abbey by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Portsmouth Abbey, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →