North Kingstown High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74 (fleet 2.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–13 (7%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 1–13 against 2.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.55 | -0.03 | 1–13 | 2.7 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| RI Co-Ed State Championships | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.0 | 2.73 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State High School Sailing Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 0.44 |
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.2 | 0.52 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Bristol | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 2.45 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Champs (O'Day Trophy) - 2019 | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 1.45 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.7 | 0.73 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich, CT | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | 0.98 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Casco Bay Fall Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.5 | 1.01 |
| 2017 Gleekman Funfest | Skipper | B | 1 | 10.0 | -1.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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