Navigate

Casco Bay Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 24 8 32
2 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 20 13 33
3 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 22 19 41
4 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 22 28 50
5 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 27 28 55
6 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 21 36 57
7 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 31 28 59
8 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 23 42 65
9 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 33 38 71
10 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 40 34 74
11 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 36 43 79
12 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 50 30 80
13 Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 31 51 82
14 Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 50 37 87
15 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 50 45 95
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 12 3 2 3 20 Kendrick Langenbach '20
Emma Marston '18
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 4 6 7 4 21 Hal Clews '19
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 11 1 8 22 Patrick Miller '19
Carter Brock '17
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 9 4 3 6 22 Colin Snow '18 [1-2]
Kevin Li '18 [3-4]
Alissa Chen '18 [1-2]
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 7 10 4 2 23 Issac Goldman '20
Jeff Goldman '18
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 1 1 12 10 24 Caleb Robinson '18
Sierra Farhman '18
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 6 2 6 13 27 Aidan Naughton '18 [1-2]
Ryan Soucy '18 [3-4]
Kevin Stamp '18 [1-2]
Connor Priest '20 [3-4]
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 5 8 13 5 31 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20
Sophie Lau '21
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 11 14 5 1 31 Grant Adam '19
Ryan Hamilton '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 10 5 9 9 33 Adam Murphy '17
Abigail Thress '19
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 3 12 10 11 36 George Holt '19 [1-4]
Kaitlyn Thompson '19 [1-2]
Ethan Adshead '21 [3-4]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 8 7 11 14 40 Joshua Scheidt '19
Anders Klink '19
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 13 15 15 7 50 Alexander Runci '19
Maddy Kerr '19
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 14 13 8 15 50 Alex Drago '19
Robert Bossong '18
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 15 9 14 12 50 Andre Evans '18
William Seigener '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 1 3 2 2 8 Peter Morrissette '18
Catherine Morrissette '20
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 5 1 1 6 13 Ashley Arruda '19 [1-4]
Harland Nadeau '18 [1-2]
Wes Pratt '21 [3-4]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 11 2 3 3 19 Arthur Rabinovich '18 [1-2]
Miguel Vonfedak '19 [3-4]
Lynn Fu '18 [1-2]
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 2 15 7 4 28 Rowan Westall '19 [1-2]
Dixon Wixted '21 [3-4]
Nora Ong '19 [1-2]
Odey Hariri '20 [3-4]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Fishwagons 3 5 11 9 28 Islay Van Dusen '18
Tucker Braun '18
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 4 11 12 1 28 Alec Bodenski '19
Cully Richard '18
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Dragons 9 4 4 13 30 James Cipolletti '18
Andrew Russo '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 14 7 6 7 34 Cam Ritchie '20
Norah Deming '18
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 13 6 9 8 36 John Holt '18
Tyra Pranger '21
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Quakers 12 9 5 11 37 Henry Lee '20
Aili Moffet '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 10 8 10 10 38 Alex Drage '19
Anabelle Weises '17
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 7 13 8 14 42 Lindsea Hayes '18
Aaron Mcnally '20
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 6 10 15 12 43 Anna Smith '19 [1-4]
Brooke Asherman '19 [1-2]
Jayme Morrison '19 [3-4]
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 15 12 13 5 45 William Keith '22
Hansen Li '18
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 8 14 14 15 51 Annika Rogers '18
Emily Lau '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers1122
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks2233
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags3344
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons4455
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen5566
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers6677
Islesboro Central SchoolIslesboro Central School Eagles7788
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons8899
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers991010
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers10101111
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs11111212
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles12121313
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay14141515
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT15151616
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers161611

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers991010
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks10101111
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags11111212
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Dragons12121313
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen13131414
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers14141515
Islesboro Central SchoolIslesboro Central School Eagles15151616
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Fishwagons161611
Moses Brown SchoolMoses Brown School Quakers1122
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers2233
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs3344
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles4455
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay6677
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT7788
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers8899
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Patrick Miller '19 Carter Brock '17
Capers Alec Bodenski '19 Cully Richard '18
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Issac Goldman '20 Jeff Goldman '18
Red Hawks Lindsea Hayes '18 Aaron Mcnally '20
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Alex Drago '19 Robert Bossong '18
Stags William Keith '22 Hansen Li '18
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Andre Evans '18 William Seigener '18
Dragons James Cipolletti '18 Andrew Russo '18
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Caleb Robinson '18 Sierra Farhman '18
Yachtsmen Peter Morrissette '18 Catherine Morrissette '20
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine George Holt '19 [1-4] Kaitlyn Thompson '19 [1-2]
Ethan Adshead '21 [3-4]
Rangers Anna Smith '19 [1-4] Brooke Asherman '19 [1-2]
Jayme Morrison '19 [3-4]
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 Sophie Lau '21
Eagles Annika Rogers '18 Emily Lau '19
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Grant Adam '19 Ryan Hamilton '19
Fishwagons Islay Van Dusen '18 Tucker Braun '18
Moses Brown School Moses Brown School Alexander Runci '19 Maddy Kerr '19
Quakers Henry Lee '20 Aili Moffet '19
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Aidan Naughton '18 [1-2]
Ryan Soucy '18 [3-4]		 Kevin Stamp '18 [1-2]
Connor Priest '20 [3-4]
Skippers Rowan Westall '19 [1-2]
Dixon Wixted '21 [3-4]		 Nora Ong '19 [1-2]
Odey Hariri '20 [3-4]
Portland High School Portland High School Hal Clews '19 Lucy Kilbreth '20
Bulldogs John Holt '18 Tyra Pranger '21
Sharon High School Sharon High School Colin Snow '18 [1-2]
Kevin Li '18 [3-4]		 Alissa Chen '18 [1-2]
Eagles Arthur Rabinovich '18 [1-2]
Miguel Vonfedak '19 [3-4]		 Lynn Fu '18 [1-2]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Adam Murphy '17 Abigail Thress '19
Boothbay Alex Drage '19 Anabelle Weises '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Joshua Scheidt '19 Anders Klink '19
Northern VT Cam Ritchie '20 Norah Deming '18
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Kendrick Langenbach '20 Emma Marston '18
Clippers Ashley Arruda '19 [1-4] Harland Nadeau '18 [1-2]
Wes Pratt '21 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/16/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.1 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From S (186°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1020.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Falmouth Maine: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.43)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.36
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.83 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.43 means a rating gap counts about 37% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Falmouth Maine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Falmouth Maine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →