Portland High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 8–18 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 5–8 |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | — | 3–10 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 8–17 against 10.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | crew | 1.12 | 0.69 | 5–8 | 5.9 | −0.43 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2018-05-05 | Cheverus Team Race | crew | 0.99 | -2.01 | 0–3 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | crew | 0.99 | -2.01 | 0–5 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2018-03-31 | Falmouth Team Race | crew | 0.84 | 3.19 | 3–1 | 1.7 | +2.34 | 1.6 | 18% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
