| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 1–3 |
| 4 |  |
Mt. Desert Island HS | Varsity | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Greely High School - Maine | Varsity | 1–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,160 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 10 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.461 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.79: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen | 1 | 4.38 school −0.32 | Caleb Robinson / Alex Mazelsky 1.86 Peter Morrissette / Emma Cole 1.84 Catherine Morrissette / Catherine Carpenter | 91% | 4–0 (100%) | +0.4 |
| 2 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 3 | 1.50 school −0.06 | Hal Clews / Lucy Kilbreth 0.84 John Holt / Jondall Norris Elizabeth Thompson / Eamon Browne | 42% | 3–1 (75%) | +1.3 |
| 3 | Yarmouth High School Clippers | 5 | 1.00 school −0.24 | Sophia Skinner / Emi Ruth 0.54 Abby Vanlonkhuyzen / Mackenzie Peloquin 0.62 Sandy Yale / Nastia Webber | 31% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.2 |
| 4 | Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity | 4 | 1.00 school −0.26 | Alec Fisichella / Axel Eschholz Lucas Ingebritson / Elise Craighead Sofie Dowling / Nate Philbrook | 32% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.3 |
| 5 | Greely High School - Maine Varsity | 2 | 2.09 | George Holt / Cormack Mclean Nicole Morse / Ethan Brouder Ethan Adshead / Brooke Asherman | 54% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falmouth High School, ME | 4.38 | 7.38 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 2 | Portland High School | 1.50 | 3.84 | 3–1 | 1.7 | +2.34 | 1.6 | 18% |
| 3 | Yarmouth High School | 1.00 | 0.55 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 4 | Mt. Desert Island HS | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 5 | Greely High School - Maine | 2.09 | 0.20 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −1.90 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Thompson | Portland High School | 0.30 | 2.65 | 3–1 | 1.7 | +2.34 | 1.6 | 18% |
| Sophia Skinner | Yarmouth High School | 0.54 | 0.08 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Abby Vanlonkhuyzen | Yarmouth High School | 0.62 | 0.17 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Sandy Yale | Yarmouth High School | -0.01 | -0.46 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Alec Fisichella | Mt. Desert Island HS | 0.99 | 0.52 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Lucas Ingebritson | Mt. Desert Island HS | 0.56 | 0.08 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Sofie Dowling | Mt. Desert Island HS | -0.40 | -0.88 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Ethan Adshead | Greely High School - Maine | 0.23 | -1.67 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −1.90 | 1.2 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | Caleb Robinson '18 Catherine Morrissette '20 Peter Morrissette '18 |
Alex Mazelsky '20 Catherine Carpenter '19 Emma Cole '21 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Elizabeth Thompson '18 Hal Clews '19 John Holt '18 |
Eamon Browne '18 Lucy Kilbreth '20 Jondall Norris '20 |
|
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19 Sandy Yale '21 Sophia Skinner '18 |
Mackenzie Peloquin '19 Nastia Webber '18 Emi Ruth '18 |
|
Mt. Desert Island HS | Varsity | Alec Fisichella '19 Lucas Ingebritson '19 Sofie Dowling '20 |
Axel Eschholz '20 Elise Craighead '20 Nate Philbrook '20 |
|
Greely High School - Maine | Varsity | Ethan Adshead '21 George Holt '19 Nicole Morse '18 |
Brooke Asherman '19 Cormack Mclean '21 Ethan Brouder '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
