Portland High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.09 (fleet -0.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 3–10 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | — | 3–10 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | Cheverus Team Race | crew | -0.12 | -3.12 | 0–3 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | crew | 0.43 | -2.56 | 0–5 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2018-03-31 | Falmouth Team Race | crew | 0.30 | 2.65 | 3–1 | 1.7 | +2.34 | 1.6 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Portland HS Team Race | Crew | TR | 3 | 67% | — |
| O'day Qualifier - SailMaine | Crew | B | 4 | 9.0 | — |
| Falmouth Team Race | Crew | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| Downeast Invitational/Maine State Championship | Crew | A | 11 | 13.8 | — |
| Clipper Challenge | Crew | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Cheverus Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Caper Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | -0.48 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SailMaine Sunday Series - Greely | Crew | B | 8 | 8.8 | — |
| Ranger Rally Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 9.5 | — |
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Crew | A | 17 | 13.9 | — |
| Clipper Challenge | Crew | B | 5 | 13.8 | — |
| 2017 Gleekman Funfest | Crew | A | 8 | 6.6 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Marblehead, MA | Crew | B | 5 | 9.8 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Clipper Challenge | Crew | A | 6 | 10.7 | — |
| Bulldog Open | Crew | B | 8 | 4.2 | — |
| 2016 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Crew | B | 7 | 6.4 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Latchstring Varsity | Crew | B | 6 | 12.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
