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Clipper Challenge

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 13 16 29
2 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 14 28 42
3 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 22 23 45
4 Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 2 20 39 59
5 Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 40 31 71
6 Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 1 45 32 77
7 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 55 26 81
8 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Rockland 31 54 85
9 Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 45 40 85
10 Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 50 43 93
11 Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 55 41 96
12 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 52 45 97
13 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 46 58 104
14 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 45 69 114
15 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 67 55 122
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 2 5 1 3 2 13 George Holt '19
Brooke Asherman '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 3 4 2 1 4 14 Emma Marston '18
Kendrick Langenbach '20
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 2 4 6 3 4 3 20 Annika Rogers '18
Lake Lindelof '22
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 1 1 6 13 1 22 Hamilton Barclay '23
Ella Beauregard '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Rockland 7 7 5 2 10 31 Elliot Spear '18
Atton Coolidge '23
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 5 10 7 5 13 40 Andrus Ethan '20
Calvin James '18
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 1 6 8 8 12 11 45 Emily Lau '19
Sophie Lau '21
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 8 3 13 6 15 45 John Holt '18
Jondall Norris '20
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 15 2 10 10 8 45 Owen White '18 [1-5]
Alex Mazelsky '20 [1-2, 5]
John Wahlig '20 [3-4]
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 11 11 12 7 5 46 Michael Hayes '20
Aaron Mcnally '20
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 10 14 9 8 9 50 Huanzhi Mao '21
Aidan Rolfe '20
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 14 9 11 11 7 52 Alex Drago '19
Robert Bossong '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 9 12 14 14 6 55 Joshua Scheidt '19
Lucia Pendolino '19
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 13 15 4 9 14 55 Casey Teahan '28
Gabe Synnott '24
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 12 13 15 15 12 67 Zoe Evans '21
Lauren Cutter '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 7 1 5 1 2 16 Anna Smith '19
Anna Smith '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 4 3 13 2 1 23 Nate Rideout '21
Nate Graves '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 3 4 10 6 3 26 Cam Ritchie '20
Anders Klink '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 15 1 3 7 28 Sophia Skinner '18
Emi Ruth '18
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Varsity 6 12 3 5 5 31 Henderson Ian '20
Luce Iris '20
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 1 5 2 2 10 13 32 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20
Lake Lindelof '22
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Eagles 2 1 5 9 13 11 39 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20
Sophie Lau '21
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen 8 9 12 7 4 40 Brendan Mittleider '19 [1-5]
Reade Carmichael '19 [1-4]
Alex Mazelsky '20 [5]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 9 8 4 12 8 41 Sam Bennion '22
Ellie Smith '24
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 15 7 7 4 10 43 Sidhira Johnson '19
Natasha Vallett '20
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 13 6 6 14 6 45 William Keith '22
Matthew Scanlon '22
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Rockland 12 11 11 8 12 54 Nicole Pendelton '22
Finn Gibson '19
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 11 13 8 9 14 55 Cully Richard '18
Jasper Fontana '21
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 14 10 14 11 9 58 Ben Leonard '20
Aaron Mcnally '20
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 10 14 15 15 15 69 Adam Wendell-Pearson '20
Eamon Browne '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brewster AcademyBrewster Academy Bobcats1414113
Camden Hills RHSCamden Hills RHS Varsity131315152
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers11335
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks22446
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags33557
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen44668
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers55779
Hingham High SchoolHingham High School Harbormen668810
Islesboro Central SchoolIslesboro Central School Eagles 1779911
Islesboro Central SchoolIslesboro Central School Eagles 288101012
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs99111113
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay1111131315
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT1010121214
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Rockland121214141
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers1515224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Brewster AcademyBrewster Academy Bobcats1515224
Camden Hills RHSCamden Hills RHS Varsity1414113
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers22446
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks33557
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags44668
Falmouth High School (ME)Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen55779
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers668810
Hingham High SchoolHingham High School Harbormen779911
Islesboro Central SchoolIslesboro Central School Eagles 188101012
Islesboro Central SchoolIslesboro Central School Eagles 299111113
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs1010121214
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay121214141
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT1111131315
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Rockland131315152
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers11335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Huanzhi Mao '21 Aidan Rolfe '20
Bobcats Sidhira Johnson '19 Natasha Vallett '20
Camden Hills RHS Camden Hills RHS Andrus Ethan '20 Calvin James '18
Varsity Henderson Ian '20 Luce Iris '20
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Zoe Evans '21 Lauren Cutter '20
Capers Cully Richard '18 Jasper Fontana '21
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Michael Hayes '20 Aaron Mcnally '20
Red Hawks Ben Leonard '20 Aaron Mcnally '20
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Alex Drago '19 Robert Bossong '18
Stags William Keith '22 Matthew Scanlon '22
Falmouth High School (ME) Falmouth High School (ME) Owen White '18 [1-5] Alex Mazelsky '20 [1-2, 5]
John Wahlig '20 [3-4]
Yachtsmen Brendan Mittleider '19 [1-5] Reade Carmichael '19 [1-4]
Alex Mazelsky '20 [5]
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine George Holt '19 Brooke Asherman '19
Rangers Anna Smith '19 Anna Smith '19
Hingham High School Hingham High School Casey Teahan '28 Gabe Synnott '24
Harbormen Sam Bennion '22 Ellie Smith '24
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Emily Lau '19 Sophie Lau '21
Eagles 1 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 Lake Lindelof '22
Islesboro Central School Islesboro Central School Annika Rogers '18 Lake Lindelof '22
Eagles 2 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 Sophie Lau '21
Portland High School Portland High School John Holt '18 Jondall Norris '20
Bulldogs Adam Wendell-Pearson '20 Eamon Browne '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Hamilton Barclay '23 Ella Beauregard '21
Boothbay Nate Rideout '21 Nate Graves '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Joshua Scheidt '19 Lucia Pendolino '19
Northern VT Cam Ritchie '20 Anders Klink '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Elliot Spear '18 Atton Coolidge '23
Rockland Nicole Pendelton '22 Finn Gibson '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Emma Marston '18 Kendrick Langenbach '20
Clippers Sophia Skinner '18 Emi Ruth '18

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 11.5 kn
From NE (51°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1016.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yarmouth: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.23 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yarmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Yarmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →