Yarmouth High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 (fleet 0.52) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–14 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 5–14 against 5.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | skipper | 0.45 | 0.66 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2018-03-31 | Falmouth Team Race | skipper | 0.54 | 0.08 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2017-04-08 | Falmouth 6X Team Race | skipper | 0.35 | -0.18 | 3–7 | 3.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'day Qualifier - SailMaine | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | -0.67 |
| Falmouth Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Downeast Invitational/Maine State Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | -1.38 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger Rally Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 1.35 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.6 | 0.81 |
| Capers Classic | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 1.11 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.8 | -0.90 |
| NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Portland | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 1.21 |
| Falmouth 6X Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| 2017 Downeast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 0.68 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Bulldog Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | -0.31 |
| 2016 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 0.27 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Latchstring JV | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | -0.93 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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