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Ranger Rally Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 1 7 19 26
2 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 6 26 32
3 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 18 18 36
4 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 23 16 39
5 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 32 10 42
6 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 27 23 50
7 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 19 38 57
8 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 20 43 63
9 Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 53 15 68
10 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 2 36 37 73
11 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 35 38 73
12 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 43 31 74
13 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 3 48 51 99
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 2 1 1 2 6 George Holt '19
Kaitlyn Thompson '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 1 1 3 2 1 7 Hamilton Barclay '23
Ella Beaguregard '21
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 3 4 7 4 18 Sophia Skinner '18
Maddie Marston '21
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 4 8 4 3 19 Hal Clews '19
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 6 2 5 7 20 Cam Ritchie '20
Maere Kaule '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 5 5 8 5 23 Conner Dillon '18
Samuel Yankee '20
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 7 6 6 8 27 Issac Goldman '20
Emma Hawko '19
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 9 7 10 6 32 Owen White '18
Alex Mazelsky '20
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 10 11 3 11 35 Alex Drago '19
Matthew Scanlon '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 2 8 9 9 10 36 Liam Cullina '19
Adam Murphy '17
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 12 10 12 9 43 Dylan Leighton '19
Emma Cole '21
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 3 11 DNF 11 12 48 John Wahlig '20
Patrick Wahlig '22
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 13 DNF 13 13 53 Sidhira Johnson '19
Abbigale Divirgilio '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 2 1 3 4 10 Brendan Mittleider '19
Reade Carmichael '19
Brewster Academy Brewster Academy Bobcats 7 5 1 2 15 Natasha Vallett '20
Aidan Rolfe '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 4 4 7 1 16 Nathan Selian '20
Alden Coldrock '20
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 3 3 2 10 18 Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19
Anna Parker '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 1 8 2 4 5 19 No Name '15
No Name '15
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Red Hawks 1 6 13 3 23 Claire Goldman '21
Lulu Loucheim '21
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 5 8 6 7 26 Ethan Adshead '21 [1-4]
William Getchell '21 [1-2]
Ethan Brouder '18 [3-4]
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 11 9 5 6 31 Patrick Wahlig '22
Isabelle Graffam '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Boothbay 2 9 7 10 11 37 Nate Graves '18
Kate Mason '23
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 6 12 8 12 38 John Holt '18
Eamon Browne '18
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 10 10 9 9 38 Robert Bossong '18
Julian Lamontagne '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 12 11 12 8 43 Norah Deming '18
Aiden Daniels '19
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 3 DNF 13 11 13 51 Jack Tiernan '20
Isabelle Gale '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brewster AcademyBrewster Academy Bobcats1133
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks2244
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags3355
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 14466
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 25577
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 36688
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers7799
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs881010
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay 1991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay 210101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT121211
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME11111313
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers131322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brewster AcademyBrewster Academy Bobcats2244
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Red Hawks3355
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags4466
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 15577
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 26688
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 37799
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers881010
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay 110101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Boothbay 211111313
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT131322
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME121211
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers1133

Conditions — 10/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 4.0 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From SSE (159°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1023.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Greely - Maine: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.56 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Greely - Maine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Greely - Maine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →