Falmouth High School, ME '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.98 (fleet 1.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–8 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 8–8 against 6.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.09 | 2.08 | 7–3 | 5.5 | +0.98 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2021-05-09 | NESSA Baker Qualifer | skipper | 0.91 | 1.91 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.3 | — |
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.4 | — |
| NESSA Baker Qualifer | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sunday Series #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 2.31 |
| Stags Leap | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 0.62 |
| Ranger Rally | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 1.64 |
| Bulldog Classic | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 0.99 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger Rally | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.9 | 0.79 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.9 | 2.05 |
| Bulldog Classic | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | -1.09 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Stags Leap Regatta | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Ranger Rally Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 7 | 9.3 | -0.12 |
| Capers Classic | Crew | A | 3 | 8.7 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Patrick Wahlig |  Yale University |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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