| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Falmouth High School | Yachtsmen | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,600 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 9 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.575 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick School Bruins | 2 | 5.80 school −0.18 | Leyton Borcherding / Alex Ohls 1.83 William Michels / Rafe Sconzo 2.20 Thomas Whidden / Greer Sconzo | 68% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.9 |
| 2 | Greens Farms Academy Dragons | 1 | 6.02 school +0.23 | Griffin Gigliotti / Max Laferriere Katherine Mcnamara / Harry Harmston 2.10 Sofia Segalla / Andrew Wagner 1.68 | 73% | 3–3 (50%) | −1.4 |
| 3 | Falmouth High School Yachtsmen | 3 | 2.83 school −0.30 | Patrick Wahlig / Ava Brimicombe James Leavitt / Ryleigh Raber Sam Rooks / Emma Cole | 8% | 1–5 (17%) | +0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick School | 5.80 | 7.12 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.32 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 3 | Falmouth High School | 2.83 | 3.83 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2 | Greens Farms Academy | 6.02 | 4.31 | 3–3 | 4.4 | −1.72 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Rooks | Falmouth High School | 1.29 | 2.29 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 41% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Greens Farms Academy | Falmouth High School | 93% | |
| 1 | 2 | Brunswick School | Falmouth High School | 91% | |
| 1 | 3 | Greens Farms Academy | Brunswick School | 54% | |
| 2 | 4 | Greens Farms Academy | Falmouth High School | 92% | |
| 2 | 5 | Brunswick School | Falmouth High School | 91% | |
| 2 | 6 | Brunswick School | Greens Farms Academy | 46% | upset |
| 3 | 7 | Falmouth High School | Greens Farms Academy | 8% | upset |
| 3 | 8 | Brunswick School | Falmouth High School | 91% | |
| 3 | 9 | Brunswick School | Greens Farms Academy | 45% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brunswick School | Bruins | Leyton Borcherding '21 Thomas Whidden '24 William Michels '21 |
Alex Ohls '24 Greer Sconzo '23 Rafe Sconzo '21 |
|
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | Griffin Gigliotti '22 Katherine Mcnamara '22 Sofia Segalla '21 |
Max Laferriere '23 Harry Harmston '24 Andrew Wagner '22 |
|
Falmouth High School | Yachtsmen | James Leavitt '22 Patrick Wahlig '23 Sam Rooks '22 |
Ryleigh Raber '23 Ava Brimicombe '21 Emma Cole '21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
