Greens Farms Academy '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.33 (fleet 3.75) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–10 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 10–9 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 12–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 22–10 against 18.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-22 | 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.68 | 3.20 | 7–6 | 4.2 | +1.52 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 2021-05-09 | NESSA Baker Qualifer | skipper | 1.68 | -0.03 | 3–3 | 4.4 | −1.72 | 1.4 | 97% |
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.56 | 3.51 | 12–1 | 9.6 | +1.96 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Baker Qualifer | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.1 | 1.65 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 92% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich, CT | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.8 | 0.04 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - Lakeville | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 0.13 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Sofia Segalla |  University of Pennsylvania |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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