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Herreshoff Qualifier - Lakeville

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 15 8 23
2 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 16 15 31
3 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 17 26 43
4 Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 24 20 44
5 Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 29 21 50
6 Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 26 36 62
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 2 1 1 5 1 5 15 Meredith Moran '19
Jacqui Rice '20
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 1 3 5 2 2 3 16 Ashton Borcherding '18
Sofia Debs '24
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 3 5 3 1 3 2 17 Gracie Woodcock '19
Sabrina Pires '20
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 6 2 2 4 6 4 24 Madeline Simms '19
Ariel Zhang '18
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 5 DNF 6 3 4 1 26 Sofia Segalla '21
Harry Harmston '24
Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 4 4 4 6 5 6 29 Adeline Schoen '18
Lauren Miller '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 1 1 1 3 1 1 8 Amelia Popp '21
Tatiana Whitman '18
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 4 2 2 2 3 2 15 Sofia Debs '24
Honour Russell '23
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 5 4 4 1 2 4 20 Julia Stork '20
Sarah Bonnem '19
Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 3 3 3 4 5 3 21 Devin Hart '19
Isabel Infurna '20
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 2 5 5 5 4 5 26 Sadie Thomas '19
Lucy Tibbals '19
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 Charles Ferragu '24
Harrison Stevens '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Choate Rosemary HallChoate Rosemary Hall Varsity112233
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Varsity223344
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians334455
Greens Farms AcademyGreens Farms Academy Varsity445566
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity556611
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats661122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Choate Rosemary HallChoate Rosemary Hall Varsity778899
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Varsity88991010
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians9910101111
Greens Farms AcademyGreens Farms Academy Varsity101011111212
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Varsity1111121277
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats12127788

Conditions — 04/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1013.1 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From NW (320°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1013.1 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Hotchkiss School: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Hotchkiss School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at The Hotchkiss School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →