The Hotchkiss School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–9 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 4–9 against 5.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.46 | 0.72 | 4–9 | 5.6 | −0.73 | 0.7 | 89% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Herreshoff Qualifier-Sail Black Rock | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 2.27 |
| NESSA Girls' Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.9 | 1.71 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.8 | 2.65 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - Lakeville | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 1.72 |
| Connecticut States | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 0.84 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.0 | 1.89 |
| NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier- Coast Guard Academy | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 1.00 |
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Meredith Moran |  Cornell University |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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