NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy)

HostMoses Brown
Date05/12/2018
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	29	14	43
2	The Prout School	Crusaders	35	22	57
3	Barnstable HS	Raiders	27	32	59
4	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	16	45	61
5	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	31	31	62
6	Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	26	37	63
7	Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	20	49	69
8	Greenwich Academy	Gator	54	18	72
9	Sharon High School	Eagles	42	41	83
10	Choate Rosemary Hall	Wild Boars	42	41	83
11	St. George's School	Dragons	47	36	83
12	Moses Brown School	Quakers	41	44	85
13	Dartmouth High School	Indians	46	51	97
14	Wellesley High School	Varsity	69	66	135

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	4	1	7	2	2	16	Rebecca Hillestad '18 [1-5] Isabella Clemens '18 [1-2, 5] Kate Russack '18 [3-4]
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	2	2	9	4	3	20	Sirine Benali '19 Lena Brzezinski '19
Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	1	12	11	1	1	26	Islay Van Dusen '18 Anna O'Connor '20
Barnstable HS	Raiders	6	5	3	5	8	27	Taylor Eastman '20 Mikayla Mathieu '18
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	13	3	1	3	9	29	Amelia Popp '21 Tatiana Whitman '18
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	5	4	8	10	4	31	Blair Lalor '18 [1-4] Ella Withington '18 [5] Lauren Kirk '21 [1-4] Mimi Macintyre '19 [5]
The Prout School	Crusaders	8	8	4	8	7	35	Payton Canavan '19 Isabella De Santis '20
Moses Brown School	Quakers	12	7	5	12	5	41	Aili Moffet '19 Francie Elliot '18
Sharon High School	Eagles	3	10	6	11	12	42	Janelle Li '21 [1-2] Chava (Roni) Sosis '18 [3-5] Lynn Fu '18 [1-2] Jazmin Jennings '21 [3-5]
Choate Rosemary Hall	Wild Boars	7	9	10	6	10	42	Julia Stork '20 [1-5] Sarah Bonnem '19 [1-2] Alexandra Hakim '19 [3-5]
Dartmouth High School	Indians	11	14	2	13	6	46	Gracie Woodcock '19 Sabrina Pires '20
St. George's School	Dragons	9	6	12	7	13	47	Morgan Sailer '18 [1-4] Caroline Benson '19 [5] Ellie Williams '18 [1-4] Celia Byrne '20 [5]
Greenwich Academy	Gator	10	11	13	9	11	54	Ashton Borcherding '18 [1-4] Caitlin Owles '19 [5] Ever Lasley '18 [1-4]
Wellesley High School	Varsity	14	13	14	14	14	69	Veronica Smith '20 [1-5] Lily Harmon '20 [1-2, 5] Margaret Benson '19 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	2	2	7	1	2	14	Meredith Moran '19 Jacqui Rice '20
Greenwich Academy	Gator	6	5	1	3	3	18	Sofia Debs '24 [1-5] Honour Russell '23 [1-2] Alina Pannone '18 [3-5]
The Prout School	Crusaders	1	3	3	2	13	22	Avery Canavan '21 Laura Borges '20
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	3	6	2	12	8	31	Anna Olsen '20 [1-5] Cat Shakin '19 [1-4] Cynthia Huang '18 [5]
Barnstable HS	Raiders	4	1	9	4	14	32	Caroline Martone '18 Caroline Lewis '20
St. George's School	Dragons	DSQ	4	5	6	6	36	Megan Grimes '19 [1-4] Maisie Macgillivray '21 [5] Charis Todd '18 [1-4]
Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	5	10	4	9	9	37	Tyler Lubek '19 [1-2] Lucy Tedford '20 [3-5] Magdelaina Putnam '20 [1-2] Eleanor Mancusi-Ungaro '18 [3-5]
Sharon High School	Eagles	7	11	6	10	7	41	Briana Chen '20 Fiona Wu '21
Choate Rosemary Hall	Wild Boars	12	7	11	7	4	41	Madeline Simms '19 Ariel Zhang '18
Moses Brown School	Quakers	8	12	8	11	5	44	Maddy Kerr '19 [1-4] Grace Sawicki '19 [5] Skyler Sullivan '18 [1-2] Greta Shuster '21 [3-4] Olivia Klipfel '21 [5]
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	10	8	12	5	10	45	Taylor Schinto '18 Louisa Bjerke '18
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	11	9	OCS	13	1	49	Rowan Schanley '22 [1-5] Anika Martz '18 [1-4] Micaela Coonley '18 [5]
Dartmouth High School	Indians	9	13	10	8	11	51	Sadie Thomas '19 Lucy Tibbals '19
Wellesley High School	Varsity	13	14	13	14	12	66	Emily Lo '20 [1-2, 5] Sofia Mcmillan '20 [3-4] Lauren Kanter '20 [1-2, 5] Camille Jacoby '20 [3-4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Barnstable HS Raiders	5	5	7	7	9
Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars	6	6	8	8	10
Dartmouth High School Indians	7	7	9	9	11
Greenwich High School Cardinals	9	9	11	11	13
Greenwich Academy Gator	8	8	10	10	2
Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	10	10	2	2	14
Marblehead High School Fishwagons	11	11	13	13	15
Moses Brown School Quakers	2	2	14	14	16
Sharon High School Eagles	13	13	15	15	17
St. George's School Dragons	14	14	16	16	18
Tabor Academy Seawolves	15	15	17	17	5
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	16	16	18	18	6
The Prout School Crusaders	17	17	5	5	7
Wellesley High School Varsity	18	18	6	6	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Barnstable HS Raiders	6	6	8	8	10
Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars	7	7	9	9	11
Dartmouth High School Indians	8	8	10	10	2
Greenwich High School Cardinals	10	10	2	2	14
Greenwich Academy Gator	9	9	11	11	13
Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	11	11	13	13	15
Marblehead High School Fishwagons	2	2	14	14	16
Moses Brown School Quakers	13	13	15	15	17
Sharon High School Eagles	14	14	16	16	18
St. George's School Dragons	15	15	17	17	5
Tabor Academy Seawolves	16	16	18	18	6
The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	17	17	5	5	7
The Prout School Crusaders	18	18	6	6	8
Wellesley High School Varsity	5	5	7	7	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Barnstable HS	Taylor Eastman '20	Mikayla Mathieu '18
Raiders	Caroline Martone '18	Caroline Lewis '20
Choate Rosemary Hall	Julia Stork '20 [1-5]	Sarah Bonnem '19 [1-2] Alexandra Hakim '19 [3-5]
Wild Boars	Madeline Simms '19	Ariel Zhang '18
Dartmouth High School	Gracie Woodcock '19	Sabrina Pires '20
Indians	Sadie Thomas '19	Lucy Tibbals '19
Greenwich Academy	Ashton Borcherding '18 [1-4] Caitlin Owles '19 [5]	Ever Lasley '18 [1-4]
Gator	Sofia Debs '24 [1-5]	Honour Russell '23 [1-2] Alina Pannone '18 [3-5]
Greenwich High School	Rebecca Hillestad '18 [1-5]	Isabella Clemens '18 [1-2, 5] Kate Russack '18 [3-4]
Cardinals	Taylor Schinto '18	Louisa Bjerke '18
Manchester/Essex RHS	Sirine Benali '19	Lena Brzezinski '19
Hornets	Rowan Schanley '22 [1-5]	Anika Martz '18 [1-4] Micaela Coonley '18 [5]
Marblehead High School	Islay Van Dusen '18	Anna O'Connor '20
Fishwagons	Tyler Lubek '19 [1-2] Lucy Tedford '20 [3-5]	Magdelaina Putnam '20 [1-2] Eleanor Mancusi-Ungaro '18 [3-5]
Moses Brown School	Aili Moffet '19	Francie Elliot '18
Quakers	Maddy Kerr '19 [1-4] Grace Sawicki '19 [5]	Skyler Sullivan '18 [1-2] Greta Shuster '21 [3-4] Olivia Klipfel '21 [5]
Sharon High School	Janelle Li '21 [1-2] Chava (Roni) Sosis '18 [3-5]	Lynn Fu '18 [1-2] Jazmin Jennings '21 [3-5]
Eagles	Briana Chen '20	Fiona Wu '21
St. George's School	Morgan Sailer '18 [1-4] Caroline Benson '19 [5]	Ellie Williams '18 [1-4] Celia Byrne '20 [5]
Dragons	Megan Grimes '19 [1-4] Maisie Macgillivray '21 [5]	Charis Todd '18 [1-4]
Tabor Academy	Blair Lalor '18 [1-4] Ella Withington '18 [5]	Lauren Kirk '21 [1-4] Mimi Macintyre '19 [5]
Seawolves	Anna Olsen '20 [1-5]	Cat Shakin '19 [1-4] Cynthia Huang '18 [5]
The Hotchkiss School	Amelia Popp '21	Tatiana Whitman '18
Bearcats	Meredith Moran '19	Jacqui Rice '20
The Prout School	Payton Canavan '19	Isabella De Santis '20
Crusaders	Avery Canavan '21	Laura Borges '20
Wellesley High School	Veronica Smith '20 [1-5]	Lily Harmon '20 [1-2, 5] Margaret Benson '19 [3-4]
Varsity	Emily Lo '20 [1-2, 5] Sofia Mcmillan '20 [3-4]	Lauren Kanter '20 [1-2, 5] Camille Jacoby '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.1 kn

avg · max 4.7 kn

Gusts to 13.2 kn

From NE (45°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1021.1 hPa Rain0.20 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Moses Brown: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.35 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Moses Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Moses Brown: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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