Greens Farms Academy '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.28 (fleet 2.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 15–20 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 5–11 |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | — | 10–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 15–20 against 14.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | crew | 1.97 | 1.42 | 5–11 | 6.4 | −0.54 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2021-05-22 | 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.10 | 3.62 | 7–6 | 4.2 | +1.52 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 2021-05-09 | NESSA Baker Qualifer | crew | 2.10 | 0.39 | 3–3 | 4.4 | −1.72 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Crew | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| NESSA George O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 0.57 |
| 2022 Phebe King Memorial Trophy Regatta | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.9 | -0.55 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Baker Qualifer | Crew | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Herreshoff Qualifier - Lakeville | Crew | A | 5 | 3.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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