Latchstring JV

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 38
2 Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Trojans 45
3 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags 52
4 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 53
5 Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 56
6 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 77
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags A 1 1 7 4 13 Christian Lamontagne '17
Guggenheim Ana '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME B 6 2 5 2 15 Owen Gervais '17
Miles Thompson '19
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors B 3 9 2 5 19 Thomas Walker '19
Helen Bechler '18
Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Trojans B 4 3 4 10 21 John Kachmar '17
Emma Strong '17
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers B 7 4 3 7 21 Sophia Skinner '18
Harland Nadeau '18
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME A 11 8 1 3 23 Meagan Taylor '16
Robert Davis '17
Mt. Desert Island HS Mt. Desert Island HS Trojans A 5 5 DNF 1 24 Kincaid Macculloch '17
Hutchin Gerrish '17
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen B 2 6 6 11 25 Catherine Morrissette '20
Jack Tiernan '20
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers A 9 7 8 8 32 Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19
Emi Ruth '18
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors A 8 11 9 9 37 Ella Kitterman '18 [1-4]
Kate Dragonetti '17 [1-2]
Arthur Chen '16 [3-4]
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Stags B 10 10 OCS 6 39 Matthew Proia '16
Robert Bossong '19
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen A DNS DNS DNS DNS 52 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brookline HighBrookline High Warriors1122
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags2233
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen3344
Mt. Desert Island HSMt. Desert Island HS Trojans4455
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME5566
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers6677

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brookline HighBrookline High Warriors7788
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Stags8899
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen991010
Mt. Desert Island HSMt. Desert Island HS Trojans10101111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME11111212
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers121211

Conditions — 04/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 997.5 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine2.6 hrs Humidity71% Pressure997.5 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Yarmouth: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.38 ± 0.36)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yarmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Yarmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →