| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | Knights | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Barnstable HS | Raiders | 5–0 |
| 3 |  |
Boothbay RHS | SeaHawks Gold | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Camden Hills RHS | Chills | 3–2 |
| 5 |  |
Marthas Vineyard RHS | Vineyarders | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
The Prout School | Crusaders | 2–3 |
| 7 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 1–4 |
| 8 |  |
Islesboro Central School | Eagles | 1–5 |
| 9 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,181 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 24 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.495 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.67 ± 0.59: an orderly event, more orderly than 90% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | 3.66 | 6.66 | 6–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 14% |
| 2 | Barnstable HS | 3.55 | 6.55 | 5–0 | 3.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| 3 | Boothbay RHS | 2.54 | 3.50 | 4–2 | 3.0 | +0.96 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 7 | Yarmouth High School | 0.99 | 1.20 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 4 | Camden Hills RHS | 2.72 | 2.83 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 5 | Marthas Vineyard RHS | 2.38 | 2.43 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 5 | The Prout School | 2.48 | 1.75 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.73 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 8 | Islesboro Central School | 2.42 | 0.52 | 1–5 | 2.8 | −1.90 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 9 | Portland High School | 2.10 | -0.90 | 0–5 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Doyle | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | 1.29 | 4.29 | 4–0 | 3.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 46% |
| Caroline Martone | Barnstable HS | 0.91 | 3.91 | 5–0 | 3.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| John Cilizzi | Barnstable HS | 1.16 | 4.16 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| Nolan Conlin | Boothbay RHS | 0.22 | 1.18 | 4–2 | 3.0 | +0.96 | 0.5 | 34% |
| Abby Vanlonkhuyzen | Yarmouth High School | 0.61 | 0.83 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Sophia Skinner | Yarmouth High School | 0.45 | 0.66 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Sandy Yale | Yarmouth High School | 0.11 | 0.32 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Levitt Hugh | Camden Hills RHS | 1.26 | 1.37 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Morin Simon | Camden Hills RHS | 1.03 | 1.14 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Coltrane Leport | Marthas Vineyard RHS | 1.03 | 1.08 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Taylor Blair | Marthas Vineyard RHS | 0.57 | 0.62 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Ava Maggi | Marthas Vineyard RHS | 0.57 | 0.62 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Avery Canavan | The Prout School | 1.01 | 0.29 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.73 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Isabella De Santis | The Prout School | 0.00 | -0.73 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −0.73 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Annika Rogers | Islesboro Central School | 0.61 | -1.29 | 1–5 | 2.8 | −1.90 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Elizabeth Thompson | Portland High School | 0.43 | -2.56 | 0–5 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vineyarders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
SeaHawks Gold | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Chills | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Crusaders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Chills | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Clippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Vineyarders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crusaders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Vineyarders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Chills | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
SeaHawks Gold | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crusaders | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Chills | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
SeaHawks Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vineyarders | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
SeaHawks Gold | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chills | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vineyarders | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Crusaders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
SeaHawks Gold | def. | |
Raiders | ||
| 26 | |
Chills | def. | |
Knights | ||
| 27 | |
Vineyarders | def. | |
Crusaders | ||
| 28 | |
Clippers | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 29 | |
Raiders | def. | |
Knights | ||
| 30 | |
Chills | def. | |
Crusaders | ||
| 31 | |
Eagles | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 32 | |
Clippers | def. | |
Vineyarders | ||
| 33 | |
Raiders | def. | |
Crusaders | ||
| 34 | |
SeaHawks Gold | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 35 | |
Chills | def. | |
Vineyarders | ||
| 36 | |
Clippers | def. | |
Eagles | ||
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
