Yarmouth High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.02 (fleet -0.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–12 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 2–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 4–12 against 4.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-23 | Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.06 | -0.57 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | skipper | 0.11 | 0.32 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2018-03-31 | Falmouth Team Race | skipper | -0.01 | -0.46 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'day Qualifier - SailMaine | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | -0.07 |
| Falmouth Team Race | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Downeast Invitational/Maine State Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.5 | -0.46 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Caper Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 0.34 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yarmouth Latchstring | Crew | B | 2 | 11.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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