Caper Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 16 13 29
2 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 1 16 13 29
3 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 14 22 36
4 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 23 27 50
5 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 30 23 53
6 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 27 28 55
7 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 48 48 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 2 2 3 3 3 14 Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19
Nastia Webber '18
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 1 3 1 5 4 16 Aidan Brown '20
Elliot Brown '22
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 1 5 3 1 4 2 1 16 Hal Clews '19
Alice Thompson '21
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 3 6 4 2 6 2 23 Robert Bossong '18
William Keat '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 6 4 5 5 1 6 27 Charlie Metcalfe '19
Juli Ennis '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 4 5 6 6 4 5 30 Eamon Browne '18
Jondall Norris '20
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 48 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 1 1 4 2 2 1 3 13 Elizabeth Thompson '18
Neddie Clews '21
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 2 2 1 3 3 2 13 Alec Bodenski '19
Cully Richard '18
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 3 1 4 4 5 5 22 Sandy Yale '21
Emi Ruth '18
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 6 6 3 1 6 1 23 No Show
No Show
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 5 3 5 6 2 6 27 Alex Drago '19
Hatch Clay '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 4 5 6 5 4 4 28 Seamus Rohde '23
Peter Jordan '18
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 48 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers113355
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity224466
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen335577
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 1446611
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 2557722
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME661133
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers772244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers224466
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity335577
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen446611
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 1557722
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs 2661133
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME772244
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers113355

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

39°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From N (2°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cape Elizabeth: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.36)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Elizabeth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Cape Elizabeth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →