Barnstable HS '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–13 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–0 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–6 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 17–13 against 16.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | skipper | 1.72 | 4.72 | 4–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 36% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.77 | 1.23 | 6–6 | 7.1 | −0.54 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.56 | 1.93 | 7–7 | 6.1 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NEHSKBR Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Matt Hersey |  Northeastern University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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