BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 (fleet 0.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–8 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 14–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 12–8 against 14.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.25 | -0.52 | 12–8 | 14.5 | −0.77 | 1.1 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'day Qualifier - SailMaine | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | -0.02 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharon Fresh / Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.2 | -0.57 |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.2 | -0.36 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 16.9 | -1.34 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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