| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Hotchkiss School | Bearcats | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Falmouth High School | Yachtsmen | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Camden Hills RHS | Varsity | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Barnstable HS | Raiders | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Sturgis Charter Public School | Varsity | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,841 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 30 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.412 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.24 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 26% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Camden Hills RHS | 2.40 | 3.41 | 5–5 | 3.7 | +1.01 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 1 | The Hotchkiss School | 5.74 | 6.42 | 9–1 | 8.5 | +0.68 | 0.2 | 54% |
| 6 | Sturgis Charter Public School | 0.57 | 0.43 | 1–9 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2 | Falmouth High School | 5.56 | 5.25 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 5 | Yarmouth High School | 2.34 | 1.81 | 3–7 | 3.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 4 | Barnstable HS | 3.18 | 2.51 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton De Lesseps | The Hotchkiss School | 1.32 | 4.32 | 4–0 | 3.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 75% |
| Zwecker Zoie | Camden Hills RHS | 0.86 | 1.87 | 5–5 | 3.7 | +1.01 | 0.8 | 25% |
| Levitt Hugh | Camden Hills RHS | 1.04 | 2.05 | 5–5 | 3.7 | +1.01 | 0.8 | 25% |
| Tommy Whittemore | The Hotchkiss School | 2.35 | 2.75 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 64% |
| Caroline Martone | Barnstable HS | 0.69 | 0.58 | 2–2 | 2.0 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 84% |
| Holden Ramage | Sturgis Charter Public School | -0.58 | -0.72 | 1–9 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Molly Rowland | Sturgis Charter Public School | 0.88 | 0.74 | 1–9 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Oliver Strudwick | Sturgis Charter Public School | -0.12 | -0.26 | 1–9 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Audrey Morin | Falmouth High School | 1.88 | 1.57 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Grace Mooridian | Falmouth High School | 1.78 | 1.47 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Sophia Skinner | Yarmouth High School | 0.35 | -0.18 | 3–7 | 3.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Abby Vanlonkhuyzen | Yarmouth High School | 0.48 | -0.06 | 3–7 | 3.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Christopher Adams | Barnstable HS | 0.83 | 0.17 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Joshua Hersey | Barnstable HS | 1.28 | -0.65 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.94 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bearcats | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Clippers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Bearcats | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 14 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Clippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bearcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Clippers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 29 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Hotchkiss School | Bearcats | Anton De Lesseps '18 Briggs Lalor '17 Christopher Lukens '19 Nicholas Stefanoni '17 Tommy Whittemore '18 |
George Sidamon-Eristoff '17 Carly Berry '17 Elizabeth Koobatian '19 Sophie Mason '17 |
|
Falmouth High School | Yachtsmen | Audrey Morin '17 Grace Mooridian '17 Peter Morrissette '18 |
Catherine Morrissette '20 Brendan Mittleider '19 Sierra Farhman '18 |
|
Camden Hills RHS | Varsity | Calvin James '18 Levitt Hugh '18 Zwecker Zoie '17 |
King Courtney '19 Henderson Ian '20 Luce Iris '20 |
|
Barnstable HS | Raiders | Caroline Martone '18 Christopher Adams '19 John Cilizzi '19 Joshua Hersey '20 Taylor Eastman '20 |
Caroline Lewis '20 Lilly Mathieu '19 Andrew Magee '18 Shannon Macdonald '17 |
|
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19 Ben Palmer '17 Sophia Skinner '18 |
Emi Ruth '18 Harland Nadeau '18 Salome Skinner '18 Anna Parker '18 |
|
Sturgis Charter Public School | Varsity | Holden Ramage '17 Molly Rowland '20 Oliver Strudwick '20 |
Emily Simonian '20 Noah Davison '20 Alexis O'Neil '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
