Yarmouth High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.04 (fleet 1.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–11 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 5–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 8–11 against 9.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | Falmouth 6X Team Race | skipper | 1.54 | 1.00 | 3–7 | 3.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2016-05-07 | Cape Jamboree | skipper | 1.49 | -1.02 | 1–3 | 2.4 | −2.51 | 1.9 | 99% |
| 2016-04-30 | Cheverus Cup | skipper | 1.34 | 1.90 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yarmouth Latchstring | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 0.83 |
| Falmouth 6X Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| 2017 Downeast Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.9 | 2.32 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Polar Bear Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 0.47 |
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.5 | 1.64 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 0.17 |
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.8 | 1.33 |
| Caper Classic/Gail Winds | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 1.89 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.0 | 1.45 |
| Latchstring Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 0.83 |
| Downeast | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.9 | -0.67 |
| Cheverus Cup | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cape Jamboree | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Polar Bear Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 1.33 |
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 0.80 |
| 2015 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 2.30 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marblehead | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 0.16 |
| Downeast Fleet Racing Invitatoinal | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.8 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Y-Town Sail-Down | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | -0.30 |
| NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman) | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.0 | 0.28 |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 0.21 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Championship / O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.4 | -0.58 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Ben Palmer |  Northeastern University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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