Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Yarmouth: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.43 ± 0.28)
Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0).
Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected.
Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of
±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.
The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s
pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising.
The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing.
How this is estimated ·
compare venues.
Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yarmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface;
dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Yarmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).
