| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Brookline High | Warriors | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,098 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.389 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.65: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cape Elizabeth High School Capers | 1 | 6.35 school +0.39, home +0.56 | Cooper Siepert / Kim Knauft 2.04 Greg Corsello / Patrick Miller Tucker Wanzer / Alec Bodenski 1.09 | 90% | 4–0 (100%) | +0.4 |
| 2 | Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen | 3 | 4.01 school −0.42 | Caleb Robinson / Sierra Farhman 2.03 Cameron Laconski / Grace Mooridian Peter Morrissette / Catherine Morrissette | 55% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | Brookline High Warriors | 5 | 2.69 | William Neubauer / Helen Bechler Benjamin Rizika / Adam Bechler Gabrielle Rizika / Arthur Chen | 38% | 3–1 (75%) | +1.5 |
| 4 | Portland High School Bulldogs | 4 | 2.43 | Nicholas Cushman / Alice Kenny Hal Clews / Annabel Wieser Clementine Furber / Nathan Robinson | 43% | 1–2 (33%) | −0.3 |
| 5 | Yarmouth High School Clippers | 2 | 4.21 | Ethan Merrill / Emi Ruth 1.58 Ben Palmer / Anna Parker 1.49 Salome Skinner / Harland Nadeau | 59% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.4 |
| 6 | Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME | 6 | 1.72 | No Name / No Name 0.58 0–10 No Name / Kelley Frumer 0.38 | 19% | 0–5 (0%) | −1.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brookline High | 2.69 | 5.73 | 3–1 | 1.5 | +3.03 | 2.4 | 11% |
| 1 | Cape Elizabeth High School | 6.35 | 9.35 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 67% |
| 2 | Falmouth High School, ME | 4.01 | 5.67 | 3–1 | 2.2 | +1.66 | 0.7 | 36% |
| 4 | Portland High School | 2.43 | 1.83 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.60 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 5 | Yarmouth High School | 4.21 | 1.70 | 1–3 | 2.4 | −2.51 | 1.9 | 99% |
| 6 | Unregistered-NESSA | 1.72 | -1.28 | 0–5 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Neubauer | Brookline High | 0.81 | 3.84 | 3–1 | 1.5 | +3.03 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Benjamin Rizika | Brookline High | 0.76 | 3.80 | 3–1 | 1.5 | +3.03 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Gabrielle Rizika | Brookline High | 0.80 | 3.84 | 3–1 | 1.5 | +3.03 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Greg Corsello | Cape Elizabeth High School | 2.15 | 5.15 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 67% |
| Tucker Wanzer | Cape Elizabeth High School | 1.09 | 4.09 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 67% |
| Cameron Laconski | Falmouth High School, ME | 0.81 | 2.46 | 3–1 | 2.2 | +1.66 | 0.7 | 36% |
| Nicholas Cushman | Portland High School | 0.81 | 0.21 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.60 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Salome Skinner | Yarmouth High School | 0.94 | -1.57 | 1–3 | 2.4 | −2.51 | 1.9 | 99% |
| No Name | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.58 | -2.42 | 0–15 | 2.9 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Capers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern ME | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Clippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Capers | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 9 | |
Warriors | def. | |
Yachtsmen | ||
| 10 | |
Clippers | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 11 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern ME | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Capers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Capers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | Cooper Siepert '16 Greg Corsello '16 Tucker Wanzer '16 |
Kim Knauft '19 Patrick Miller '19 Alec Bodenski '19 |
|
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | Caleb Robinson '18 Cameron Laconski '16 Peter Morrissette '18 |
Sierra Farhman '18 Grace Mooridian '17 Catherine Morrissette '20 |
|
Brookline High | Warriors | Benjamin Rizika '17 Gabrielle Rizika '16 William Neubauer '16 |
Adam Bechler '16 Arthur Chen '16 Helen Bechler '18 |
|
Portland High School | Bulldogs | Clementine Furber '17 Hal Clews '19 Nicholas Cushman '17 |
Nathan Robinson '17 Annabel Wieser '19 Alice Kenny '18 |
|
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | Ben Palmer '17 Ethan Merrill '16 Salome Skinner '18 |
Anna Parker '18 Emi Ruth '18 Harland Nadeau '18 |
|
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | No Name '15 | No Name '15 Kelley Frumer '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
