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Polar Bear Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 9 4 13
2 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 13 13 26
3 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 19 17 36
4 North Kingstown High School Sailing North Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers 13 29 42
5 Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 32 15 47
6 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Varsity 31 21 52
7 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA IslesBoro 24 31 55
8 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 26 35 61
9 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 44 27 71
10 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 33 44 77
11 Waynflete School Waynflete School Varsity 30 49 79
12 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 50 34 84
13 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 40 45 85
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 5 2 1 1 9 Cameron Rousseau '16
Audrey Morin '17
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 2 4 3 4 13 Greg Corsello '16
Tucker Wanzer '16
North Kingstown High School Sailing North Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers 4 1 2 6 13 Delaney Bamford '16
Mikey O'Flaherty '17
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 6 6 4 3 19 Ethan Merrill '16
Matt Bolles '16
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA IslesBoro 1 8 8 7 24 Emily Lan '19 [1-4]
Ava Schlottman '20 [1-2]
Sophie Lan '21 [3-4]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 10 5 6 5 26 Calob Niles '17
Beth Carroll '16
Waynflete School Waynflete School Varsity 12 11 5 2 30 Ellis Heminway '17
Kelley Frumer '17
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Varsity 3 7 9 12 31 Nicole Torrie '16 [1-2]
Ryan Hamilton '19 [3-4]
Marika Van Dusen '16 [1-2]
Eliza Hancock '17 [3-4]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 11 3 10 8 32 Gordon Gurnell '17
Dan Mcginley '16
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 8 9 7 9 33 Jeff Goldman '18
Emma Hawko '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 7 10 12 11 40 Ben Hunt '16
William Hunt '17
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 12 13 10 44 Nick Cushman '17
Nick Leong '18
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 13 13 11 13 50 Andrew Morrissette '17
Alex Drago '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 1 1 1 4 Caleb Robinson '18
Grace Mooridian '17
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 2 3 2 6 13 Cooper Siepert '16
William Gent '16
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 5 2 4 4 15 Stewart Gurnell '19
Mark Wojcicki '17
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 4 5 6 2 17 Ben Palmer '17
Isabella Pardales '17
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Varsity 3 4 3 11 21 Kyle Aikman '17
Katie Rodger '16
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 9 8 7 3 27 Henry Jones '16
Nathan Robinson '17
North Kingstown High School Sailing North Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers 6 10 5 8 29 Marina Barzaghi '17 [1-2]
Noah Simmons '16 [3-4]
Ryan Soucy '18 [1-2]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA IslesBoro 10 6 8 7 31 Olivia Olson '17 [1-2]
Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 [3-4]
Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 [1-2]
Olivia Olson '17 [3-4]
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 11 9 9 5 34 Christian Lamontagne '17
Matt Proia '16
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 8 7 11 9 35 Peter Hyde '16
Peter Jordan '18
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 7 11 13 13 44 Alden Spell '18
Tomas Georgsson '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 12 13 10 10 45 Lucas Baumann '17
Jack Rutherford '17
Waynflete School Waynflete School Varsity 13 12 12 12 49 Owen Gervais '17 [1-4]
Vika Santoro '19 [1-2]
Grace Atwood '19 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Varsity1133
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity2244
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity3355
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen4466
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Varsity5577
North Kingstown High School SailingNorth Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers6688
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs7799
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA IslesBoro10101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT991111
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME881010
Waynflete SchoolWaynflete School Varsity11111313
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons121211
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers131322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Varsity2244
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity3355
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity4466
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen5577
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Varsity6688
North Kingstown High School SailingNorth Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers7799
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs881010
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA IslesBoro11111313
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT10101212
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern ME991111
Waynflete SchoolWaynflete School Varsity121211
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons131322
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Greg Corsello '16 Tucker Wanzer '16
Varsity Cooper Siepert '16 William Gent '16
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Jeff Goldman '18 Emma Hawko '19
Varsity Alden Spell '18 Tomas Georgsson '17
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Andrew Morrissette '17 Alex Drago '19
Varsity Christian Lamontagne '17 Matt Proia '16
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Cameron Rousseau '16 Audrey Morin '17
Yachtsmen Caleb Robinson '18 Grace Mooridian '17
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Nicole Torrie '16 [1-2]
Ryan Hamilton '19 [3-4]		 Marika Van Dusen '16 [1-2]
Eliza Hancock '17 [3-4]
Varsity Kyle Aikman '17 Katie Rodger '16
North Kingstown High School Sailing North Kingstown High School Sailing Delaney Bamford '16 Mikey O'Flaherty '17
Skippers Marina Barzaghi '17 [1-2]
Noah Simmons '16 [3-4]		 Ryan Soucy '18 [1-2]
Portland High School Portland High School Nick Cushman '17 Nick Leong '18
Bulldogs Henry Jones '16 Nathan Robinson '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Emily Lan '19 [1-4] Ava Schlottman '20 [1-2]
Sophie Lan '21 [3-4]
IslesBoro Olivia Olson '17 [1-2]
Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 [3-4]		 Rylee Sienkiewicz '20 [1-2]
Olivia Olson '17 [3-4]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Ben Hunt '16 William Hunt '17
Northern VT Lucas Baumann '17 Jack Rutherford '17
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Calob Niles '17 Beth Carroll '16
Southern ME Peter Hyde '16 Peter Jordan '18
Waynflete School Waynflete School Ellis Heminway '17 Kelley Frumer '17
Varsity Owen Gervais '17 [1-4] Vika Santoro '19 [1-2]
Grace Atwood '19 [3-4]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Gordon Gurnell '17 Dan Mcginley '16
Falcons Stewart Gurnell '19 Mark Wojcicki '17
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Ethan Merrill '16 Matt Bolles '16
Clippers Ben Palmer '17 Isabella Pardales '17

Conditions — 09/06/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From SW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1020.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bowdoin College: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bowdoin College, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →