North Kingstown High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.11 (fleet 3.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–17 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 11–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 13–17 against 16.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.12 | 0.83 | 2–8 | 3.8 | −1.29 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | skipper | 1.48 | 1.00 | 11–9 | 12.5 | −0.48 | 0.4 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sail Black Rock Intersectional | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 1.58 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Newport, RI | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 3.84 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.6 | 0.17 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Polar Bear Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | — |
| NESSA National Keelboat Invitational Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 2.2 | — |
| ISSA National Keelboat Challenge Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 1.65 |
| 2015 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 18.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 1.64 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 1.50 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Championship / O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.0 | -0.34 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Noah Simmons |  Dartmouth College |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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