Dartmouth College '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.47 (fleet 3.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–32 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 10–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 9–19 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 21–32 against 25.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 2.54 | 5–2 | 5.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2019-03-24 | Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 2.82 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.14 | 1.71 | 5–8 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.16 | 1.82 | 4–11 | 4.9 | −0.34 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 0.84 | 2–8 | 4.6 | −1.44 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 3.53 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.1 | 3.46 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 3.90 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.4 | 3.31 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.3 | 3.50 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 3.94 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.8 | 2.68 |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 4.9 | 4.12 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.5 | 2.52 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 2.66 |
| ICSA Match Race National Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.9 | 3.86 |
| 76th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 14 | 4.1 | — |
| 2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.3 | 2.49 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Noah Simmons |  North Kingstown High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
