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2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 1
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 2
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 3
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 4
5 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 5
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 6
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 7
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 8
SchoolTeam R1 TOT
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 1
Boston College Boston College Eagles 2 2
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 3
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 4
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 5
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 6
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7 7
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 8

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  8 boats · 1 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Cole Harris '22Dartmouth College1/12.807.00++4.2099th → 99th2.618%1.0 / 3.8
2Wade Waddell '19Boston College1/12.884.38+1.5099th → 99th0.732%2.0 / 3.9
3Alden Grimes '21Bowdoin College1/12.943.53+0.5999th → 99th0.248%3.0 / 3.8
4Patrick Shanahan '19Brown University1/12.463.06+0.5999th → 99th0.250%4.0 / 4.5
5Nicholas Baird '19Yale University1/13.162.27−0.8999th → 99th0.580%5.0 / 3.5
6Kyle Riggs '21Northeastern University1/11.422.14+0.7288th → 99th0.250%6.0 / 5.9
7Stephen Duncan '20Massachusetts Institute of Technology1/11.871.45−0.4297th → 89th0.181%7.0 / 5.3
8Samuel Shea '19Tufts University1/11.95——99th → —2.6>99%8.0 / 5.2

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1010.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From WNW (282°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine3.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1010.2 hPa Rain0.17 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →