Peter Lynn

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.70 (fleet 3.72)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	+0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 89–34 (72%) as crew 10–5 (67%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2019	5	30–12	—
Spring 2018	4	15–5	4–3
Fall 2017	1	6–1	—
Spring 2017	4	14–10	5–2
Spring 2016	1	19–2	—
Fall 2015	1	5–4	1–0

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 14 graded regattas (133 matches) the record is 95–38 against 90.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2019-05-25	LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	skipper	3.12	6.12	3–0	2.7	≥+3.00	0.5	70%
2019-03-30	Jumbo Team Race	skipper	3.32	3.35	5–2	5.0	+0.03	0.0	68%
2019-03-24	Eagle Team Race	skipper	3.39	2.12	7–4	9.4	−1.27	2.4	99%
2019-03-16	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	3.36	3.89	6–1	5.5	+0.53	0.2	54%
2019-03-09	Rudkin Team Race	skipper	3.26	3.73	9–5	7.9	+0.47	0.4	35%
2018-05-26	LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	crew	3.21	2.94	2–2	2.2	−0.27	0.0	79%
2018-03-17	Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy	skipper	2.96	1.85	2–1	2.6	−1.11	0.5	95%
2018-03-10	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	skipper	2.92	3.59	13–4	11.2	+0.67	0.8	22%
2017-11-04	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	3.17	4.08	6–1	5.0	+0.91	0.6	36%
2017-04-08	New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	crew	3.87	4.63	4–2	3.0	+0.75	0.5	34%
2017-03-26	BU Team Race	skipper	3.10	3.88	9–1	8.1	+0.78	0.4	41%
2017-03-18	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	3.07	1.57	5–9	8.8	−1.50	3.9	>99%
2016-03-19	The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta	skipper	2.83	4.45	19–2	14.5	+1.62	4.5	2%
2015-11-07	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	2.74	3.34	5–4	4.0	+0.59	0.4	35%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2019 Team page Season
Thompson Trophy	Skipper	C	13	7.8	3.38
Southern New England Team Race	Skipper	TR	17	88%	—
Rudkin Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	64%	—
LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	Skipper	TR	22	54%	—
Jumbo Team Race	Skipper	TR	7	71%	—
Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship	Skipper	B	4	12.2	3.31
Gill Coed Western Semifinal	Skipper	B	4	4.2	4.94
Eagle Team Race	Skipper	TR	10	60%	—
Fall 2018 Team page Season
ICSA Match Race National Championship Keelboat	Crew	A	1	1.0	—
Hood Trophy	Skipper	A	11	12.7	0.86
The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy	Skipper	B	3	8.0	3.55
Harman Cup Keelboat	Crew	A	8	2.4	—
Hewitt Trophy Division 2	Skipper	A	16	5.8	3.83
Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase	Skipper	B	18	8.7	4.07
The 78th Professor Schell Trophy	Skipper	B	14	7.6	3.90
2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat	Crew	A	1	2.0	—
Spring 2018 Team page Season
Navy Spring	Skipper	B	18	6.2	4.16
LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	Crew	TR	22	64%	—
John Jackson Memorial Team Race	Skipper	TR	17	76%	—
Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy	Skipper	TR	8	62%	—
Friis Team Race	Crew	TR	14	57%	—
The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup	Skipper	A	10	9.9	2.95
Fall 2017 Team page Season
Oberg Trophy	Skipper	C	10	6.6	3.30
NEISA Match Race Championships Keelboat	Crew	A	1	1.0	—
ICSA Match Race Nationals Keelboat	Crew	A	1	1.0	—
Hewitt Trophy	Skipper	A	7	8.0	3.15
Hap Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	7	86%	—
Central Series	Skipper	A	8	6.2	3.18
75th Pine Trophy Keelboat	Crew	A	16	3.1	—
35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy	Skipper	A	6	9.2	3.47
Spring 2017 Team page Season
St. Mary's Team Race Interconference	Crew	TR	12	83%	—
Southern New England Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	36%	—
New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	Crew	TR	23	61%	—
George Morris Trophy	Skipper	B	10	2.9	3.62
Central Series 2	Skipper	B	4	3.0	3.30
Central 3	Skipper	A	6	4.3	2.75
BU Team Race	Skipper	TR	10	90%	—
Fall 2016 Team page Season
Phil Harman Cup Keelboat	Crew	A	6	3.3	—
Hewitt Trophy	Skipper	C	12	5.5	3.52
Central Series 1	Skipper	A	6	3.8	4.02
Spring 2016 Team page Season
Oberg Trophy	Skipper	C	4	7.0	2.67
The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta	Skipper	TR	21	90%	—
George Morris Trophy	Skipper	B	8	4.1	3.27
Fall 2015 Team page Season
Nickerson Trophy	Skipper	A	8	8.5	2.69
Hewitt Trophy	Skipper	A	11	8.3	2.56
Harman cup Keelboat	Crew	A	8	4.9	—
Hap Moore Team Race	Crew	TR	16	62%	—
Central Series6	Skipper	B	9	3.0	3.64
Central Series 2	Skipper	B	6	3.0	3.87
33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy	Skipper	B	9	6.7	3.75

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Peter Lynn	Marblehead High School	'15

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →