| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–4 |
| 5 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,135 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 31 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.655 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.47 ± 0.37: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufts University | 8.65 | 10.28 | 8–2 | 5.0 | +1.63 | 3.3 | 4% |
| 4 | Brown University | 8.39 | 9.01 | 6–5 | 4.7 | +0.62 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 5 | University of Rhode Island | 7.06 | 7.65 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2 | Dartmouth College | 8.82 | 9.37 | 7–3 | 6.0 | +0.56 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 3 | Boston College | 10.03 | 8.76 | 7–4 | 9.4 | −1.27 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 6 | Bowdoin College | 8.13 | 5.13 | 0–10 | 3.9 | ≤−3.00 | 7.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fasolo | Tufts University | 2.57 | 4.20 | 8–2 | 5.0 | +1.63 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Ansgar Jordan | Tufts University | 2.75 | 4.38 | 8–2 | 5.0 | +1.63 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Aidan Naughton | University of Rhode Island | 2.52 | 3.12 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | University of Rhode Island | 2.41 | 3.01 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Max Clapp | Dartmouth College | 3.02 | 3.23 | 6–2 | 5.7 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Claire Havig | Bowdoin College | 2.56 | -0.44 | 0–10 | 3.9 | ≤−3.00 | 7.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Green | Eagles | Bears | Rams | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 3–2 | W | ✕ | L | L | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Green | Eagles | Bears | Rams | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 4–1 | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–2 | L | W | W | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Bears | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Brown University Bears | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Big Green | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Big Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Alex Fasolo '22 Ansgar Jordan '22 Samuel Merson '22 |
Mallory Hood '22 Lindsay Powers '21 Emily Calandrella '20 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green | Cole Harris '22 Max Clapp '21 Michael Tellini '21 Noah Simmons '20 |
Lisa Genthner '19 Christopher Cheng '21 Annika Rogers '22 Kasey Rhee '21 |
|
Boston College | Eagles | Peter Lynn '19 Robert Hunter '22 Scott Rasmussen '20 |
Lauren Seigel '20 Nicole Moeder '22 Mikayla Mathieu '22 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Jack Murphy '22 John Mastrandrea '20 Tucker Weed '22 |
Sawyer Balint '20 Madeleine Montagner '22 Jack Papetti '21 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Aidan Naughton '22 Christian Moffitt '21 Michael O'Flaherty '21 Parker Colantuono '22 |
Edward Gary '22 Alyssa Hall '20 Maguire Bennett '21 Kevin Stamp '22 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | Claire Havig '21 Ellie Maus '22 Perham Black '22 |
Alissa Chen '22 Hannah Konkel '20 Gigi Diserio '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
