Brown University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.54 (fleet 3.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 64–47 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 25–9 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 20–17 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 9–16 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 5–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (111 matches) the record is 64–47 against 61.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 3.03 | 2.75 | 15–5 | 15.8 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 3.02 | 3.87 | 10–4 | 7.9 | +0.84 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2019-03-24 | Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 3.27 | 6–5 | 4.7 | +0.62 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.73 | 2.28 | 7–8 | 8.5 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.56 | 4.15 | 5–1 | 3.5 | +1.59 | 1.6 | 17% |
| 2019-03-02 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 1.93 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.64 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 3.97 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.57 | 1.7 | 15% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 1.53 | 3–7 | 4.6 | −0.75 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 2.03 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.16 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.36 | 2.63 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.27 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.09 | 2.56 | 3–2 | 2.5 | +0.46 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 77% | — |
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.2 | 3.68 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 14 | 3.1 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.6 | 3.81 |
| NEISA Match Race Championship, Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 8 | 4.6 | 4.59 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 8.9 | 3.13 |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.3 | 3.47 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 13.2 | 0.72 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 2.63 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| 76th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 14 | 2.4 | — |
| 2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 1.71 |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.6 | 3.44 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| J70 Tuesday Invite - 1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 2.8 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 2.98 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | John Mastrandrea |  George Washington University |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
