| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 4–3 |
| 3 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 1–6 |
| 4 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 0–7 |
| 5 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,794 team race matches sailed before 2018-10-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 11 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.408 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.55 ± 0.63: a typical event, more orderly than 95% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University Bears | 2 | 7.63 school +0.10 | Nathan Housberg / Jack Papetti 2.37 John Mastrandrea / Elizabeth Rolfes 2.41 Tucker Weed / Justin Chiang | 56% | 5–1 (83%) | +1.6 |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 1 | 8.19 school +0.14 | Jack Bitney / Juliana Testa 3.19 Alex Fasolo / Jacob Whitney Charlie Hibben / Michaela Morris | 72% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.7 |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3 | 7.79 school +0.14 | Austen Freda / Lindsay Powers 2.70 Bram Brakman / Maria Brush 2.52 Wells Drayton / Marisa Permatteo 2.41 | 54% | 1–4 (20%) | −1.7 |
| 5 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 4 | 5.77 school −0.36 | Christopher Pearson / Alyssa Hall Matthew Schryver / Samantha Hamilton Michael O'Flaherty / Maguire Bennett 2.27 | 11% | 0–5 (0%) | −0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University Bears | 7.63 | 9.20 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.57 | 1.7 | 15% |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 8.19 | 8.88 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.69 | 0.3 | 46% |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 7.79 | 5.90 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 5 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 5.77 | 2.77 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Housberg | Brown University | 2.37 | 3.94 | 5–1 | 3.4 | +1.57 | 1.7 | 15% |
| Alex Fasolo | Tufts University | 2.11 | 2.81 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.69 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Charlie Hibben | Tufts University | 2.46 | 3.15 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.69 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Austen Freda | Tufts University | 2.70 | 0.82 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Bram Brakman | Tufts University | 2.52 | 0.64 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Christopher Pearson | University of Rhode Island | 1.83 | -1.17 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Matthew Schryver | University of Rhode Island | 1.74 | -1.26 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | University of Rhode Island | 2.27 | -0.73 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 92% | |
| 1 | 2 | Brown University Bears | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 46% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | Brown University Bears | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 39% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Brown University Bears | University of Rhode Island Rams | 87% | |
| 1 | 7 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 60% | |
| 1 | 9 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 88% | |
| 2 | 11 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 91% | |
| 2 | 12 | Brown University Bears | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 46% | upset |
| 2 | 14 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | Brown University Bears | 66% | |
| 2 | 16 | Brown University Bears | University of Rhode Island Rams | 85% | |
| 2 | 17 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 64% |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | 1 | Bulldogs | 2 | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 4–4 | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 4–4 | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | 1 | Bulldogs | 2 | Rams | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University Bears | 3–1 | ✕ | L | W | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 4–2 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 4–2 | W | ✕ | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 0–3 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brown University | Bears | John Mastrandrea '20 Nathan Housberg '19 Tucker Weed '22 |
Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Jack Papetti '21 Justin Chiang '21 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Alex Fasolo '22 Charlie Hibben '22 Jack Bitney '19 |
Jacob Whitney '21 Michaela Morris '20 Juliana Testa '21 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Austen Freda '21 Bram Brakman '21 Wells Drayton '21 |
Lindsay Powers '21 Maria Brush '21 Marisa Permatteo '19 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Christopher Pearson '20 Matthew Schryver '20 Michael O'Flaherty '21 |
Alyssa Hall '20 Samantha Hamilton '19 Maguire Bennett '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
