Tufts University '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.78 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 39 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 3.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 101–94 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 15–15 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 35–28 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 16–27 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 10–8 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 17–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (193 matches) the record is 101–92 against 105.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 20 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 6.28 | 5–1 | 1.7 | +3.07 | 7.0 | <1% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 3.70 | 7–11 | 5.3 | +0.52 | 0.6 | 24% |
| 2019-03-02 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.14 | 2.17 | 3–3 | 4.0 | −0.97 | 0.7 | 94% |
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 3.88 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.69 | 0.3 | 46% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.85 | -0.15 | 0–3 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 3.89 | 15–1 | 13.5 | +1.05 | 1.0 | 26% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 2.90 | 3–7 | 2.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 2.39 | 5–10 | 6.2 | −0.56 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.98 | 2.21 | 12–5 | 14.2 | −0.78 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.16 | 2.70 | 3–4 | 3.6 | −0.46 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2017-04-02 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 1.60 | 2–8 | 5.1 | −1.62 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 2.80 | 8–13 | 9.3 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.21 | 2.01 | 6–6 | 8.6 | −1.21 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2016-11-05 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 3.57 | 10–8 | 8.3 | +0.39 | 0.5 | 28% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.22 | 2.32 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −0.90 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.18 | 3.33 | 15–6 | 14.4 | +0.15 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Crew | A | 6 | 9.5 | -0.10 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 at URI | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.4 | 2.13 |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 2.83 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.7 | 4.11 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 3.51 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.5 | 4.23 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.3 | 3.94 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 3.73 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 8.3 | 3.30 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 5.11 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 11 | 5.6 | 4.01 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 3.39 |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | 3.16 |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 13 | 8.0 | 3.14 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.7 | 3.60 |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.5 | 2.02 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.7 | 3.51 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 4.50 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.9 | 3.25 |
| 43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.1 | 3.30 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 4.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.8 | 3.12 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Alymers | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.9 | 2.17 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 5.8 | 3.58 |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 3.94 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.2 | 1.34 |
| NEISA Men Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.4 | 2.21 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.3 | 3.85 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.4 | 3.08 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.7 | 3.43 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 4.44 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.5 | 2.80 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 2.64 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 18 | 9.3 | 2.79 |
| Stuart Walker | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.8 | 1.72 |
| Southern 7 | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 2.92 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 4.14 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.3 | 3.52 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.6 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 2.80 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 2.5 | 4.10 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Bitney |  Minnetonka High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
