Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta

HostMIT
Date03/31/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/NC Firefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	19–5
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	18–6
3	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	14–10
4	Harvard University	Crimson	14–10
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	13–11
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–13
7	Brown University	Bears	8–7
8	College of Charleston	Cougars	8–7
9	Stanford University	Cardinal	8–7
10	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–7
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8–7
12	Connecticut College	Camels	3–12
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–12
14	University of South Florida	Bulls	3–12
15	Tufts University	Jumbos	1–14
16	Boston University	Terriers	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,872 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 84 of 135 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.667 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.40 ± 0.22: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	7	10.36 school +0.17	Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.56 15–5 Charles Sinks / Alice Bohan 3.64 12–5 Sophia Reineke / Lily Mcgrath 2.97 9–4 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.06 9–1 Charles Sinks / Emma Perry 3.46 6–0 Wade Waddell / Alice Bohan 3.54 3–0	57%	18–5 (78%)	+4.9
2	Yale University Bulldogs	5	10.57 school +0.20	Shawn Harvey / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.30 Malcolm Lamphere / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.62 Nicolas Hernandez / Kira Woods 3.41	62%	17–6 (74%)	+2.7
3	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	13	9.47 school +0.27	William Hawk / Emily Gonzalez 2.99 12–9 Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.36 5–8 Christian Filter / Louisa Lindgren 2.89 9–1 Matt Safford / Hannah Konkel 2.80 3–6 Matthew Kaplan / Marie Bergsund 3.40 6–1 Matt Safford / Marie Bergsund 2.78 3–2 William Hawk / Nora Cullen 2.99 2–0 Matthew Kaplan / Emily Gonzalez 3.37 2–0	36%	14–9 (61%)	+5.8
4	Harvard University Crimson	10	9.76	Nick Sertl / Christine Gosioco 3.62 Nick Digiovanni / Zennie Wey 2.97 12–8 Eli Burnes / Kevin Coakley 3.10 5–5 Henry Burnes / Catherine Tang 3.23 7–3 Nick Digiovanni / Catherine Tang 3.04 2–1 Taylor Ladd / Kevin Coakley 2.96 2–1	43%	14–9 (61%)	+4.1
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	10.59 home +0.40	Cutter O'Connell / Julia Cho 3.14 9–10 Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.76 9–10 Trevor Long / Greta Farrell 3.31 6–8 Trevor Long / John Ped 3.32 3–2 Cutter O'Connell / John Ped 3.11 3–1 Trevor Long / Joseph Mastrandrea 3.24 3–1 Ty Ingram / Greta Farrell 3.66 2–1 Ty Ingram / Stephen Duncan 3.80 1–0	62%	12–11 (52%)	−2.3
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	6	10.44 school +0.25	Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.62 Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.58 Spencer Cartwright / Michael Mcbrien 2.95	57%	10–13 (43%)	−3.2
7	Brown University Bears	11	9.55 school +0.16	Patrick Shanahan / Julia Kim 3.52 Sam Alexander / Emily Ito 2.95 6–5 Quinn Andersen / Julia Reynolds 2.88 6–5 Lindsey Baab / Abigayle Konys 3.04 0–2 Sam Alexander / Sawyer Balint 2.87 1–1 Quinn Andersen / Emily Ito 2.93 1–1	39%	7–7 (50%)	+1.5
8	College of Charleston Cougars	2	10.75 school +0.35	Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.51 Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.13 Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.75	67%	7–7 (50%)	−2.4
9	Stanford University Cardinal	3	10.75 school +0.60	Jacob Rosenberg / Kathryn Booker 3.21 William Marshall / Cassie Obel 3.23 7–6 Will La Dow / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.67 6–5 Will La Dow / Elena Vandenberg 3.74 1–2 William Marshall / Elena Vandenberg 3.26 0–1	67%	7–7 (50%)	−2.4
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	8	10.15 school +0.20	Duncan Williford / Paige Clarke 3.30 Christopher Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.70 7–6 Audrey Giblin / Sophia Diserio 3.12 6–5 Erik Weis / Eloise Burn 2.79 3–3	56%	8–7 (53%)	−0.3
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1	11.24 school +0.21	Greiner Hobbs / Haley Okun 4.00 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.34 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.77 7–6 Noah Barrengos Barrengos / Maya Weber 2.43 0–1	76%	7–7 (50%)	−3.7
12	Connecticut College Camels	9	9.41 school +0.08	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.15 Hugh Macgillivray / Gwynie Dunlevy 3.23 1–1 Walter Florio / Erin Smith 2.85 1–1 Hugh Macgillivray / Elizabeth Davis 3.36 1–0 Walter Florio / Albert Rodiger 3.01 1–0	44%	2–1 (67%)	+0.7
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	16	8.72 school −0.28	Mack Fox / Christina Nothacker 3.13 Austin Lettengarver / Maddie Ekin 3.03 Shane Riera / Brian Nelson 2.81	22%	5–9 (36%)	+1.9
14	University of South Florida Bulls	14	9.16 school +0.16	Sean Cornell / Rachel Daye 3.49 Brendan Feeney / Darby Capellin 2.85 Michael Sanandajian / Mandi Dickie 2.62	32%	3–12 (20%)	−1.8
15	Tufts University Jumbos	15	8.83 school +0.17	Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 2.85 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk / Emily Shanley-Roberts 2.98 2–9 Christopher Keller / Michelle Chisdak 2.82 2–9 Jack Bitney / Lara Dienemann 2.85 0–3 Christopher Keller / Lindsay Powers 2.96 0–3	26%	2–12 (14%)	−1.6
16	Boston University Terriers	12	9.43 school −0.15	Ravi Parent / Grace Mooradian 3.32 Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline 3.19 2–12 Sam Morrell / Erica Brown 3.18 2–10 Michael Sabourin / Carly Berry 2.49 0–3 Josh Dochoda / Hannah Davis 3.13 0–1	38%	2–13 (13%)	−3.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Bowdoin College	9.47	10.60	14–9	8.2	+1.13	4.7	1%
1	Boston College	10.36	11.45	18–5	13.1	+1.09	3.6	2%
12	Connecticut College	9.41	10.44	2–1	1.3	+1.02	0.5	40%
4	Harvard University	9.76	10.55	14–9	9.9	+0.79	2.3	6%
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.72	9.45	5–9	3.1	+0.73	1.0	17%
2	Yale University	10.57	11.17	17–6	14.3	+0.60	1.1	16%
7	Brown University	9.55	10.06	7–7	5.4	+0.51	0.6	27%
10	Dartmouth College	10.15	10.05	8–7	8.3	−0.10	0.0	68%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.59	10.12	12–11	14.4	−0.46	0.8	90%
6	Roger Williams University	10.44	9.82	10–13	13.2	−0.62	1.4	95%
14	University of South Florida	9.16	8.45	3–12	4.8	−0.71	0.9	92%
15	Tufts University	8.83	8.06	2–12	3.6	−0.78	0.8	92%
9	Stanford University	10.75	9.95	7–7	9.4	−0.80	1.4	96%
8	College of Charleston	10.75	9.94	7–7	9.4	−0.82	1.5	96%
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.24	9.93	7–7	10.7	−1.31	3.7	>99%
16	Boston University	9.43	7.87	2–13	5.7	−1.56	3.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	2.99	4.13	14–9	8.2	+1.13	4.7	1%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.56	4.65	18–5	13.1	+1.09	3.6	2%
Taylor Ladd	Harvard University	2.96	4.04	2–1	1.3	+1.08	0.5	39%
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	2.85	3.88	2–1	1.3	+1.02	0.5	40%
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	2.97	3.76	14–9	9.9	+0.79	2.3	6%
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.03	3.76	5–9	3.1	+0.73	1.0	17%
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.10	3.81	5–5	3.3	+0.71	0.9	21%
Audrey Giblin	Dartmouth College	3.12	3.13	6–5	6.0	+0.01	0.0	62%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.76	3.29	12–11	14.4	−0.46	0.8	90%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.31	2.85	12–11	14.4	−0.46	0.8	90%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.58	2.96	10–13	13.2	−0.62	1.4	95%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	2.95	2.33	10–13	13.2	−0.62	1.4	95%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.49	2.78	3–12	4.8	−0.71	0.9	92%
Brendan Feeney	University of South Florida	2.85	2.14	3–12	4.8	−0.71	0.9	92%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	2.82	2.04	2–12	3.6	−0.78	0.8	92%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.51	2.69	7–7	9.4	−0.82	1.5	96%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.75	2.93	7–7	9.4	−0.82	1.5	96%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.34	2.03	7–7	10.7	−1.31	3.7	>99%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.32	1.76	2–13	5.7	−1.56	3.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston College	Dartmouth College	50%
1	2	Connecticut College	Boston University	52%
1	3	Harvard University	Yale University	30%	upset
1	4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	93%
1	5	Brown University	College of Charleston	23%	upset
1	6	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	67%
1	7	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	78%
1	8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	47%	upset
1	9	Boston College	Harvard University	66%
1	10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston University	86%
1	11	Yale University	Dartmouth College	55%
1	13	Brown University	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	77%
1	15	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	83%
1	16	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	17	Boston College	Yale University	45%	upset
1	18	Tufts University	Boston University	32%	upset
1	19	Dartmouth College	Brown University	69%
1	21	Harvard University	College of Charleston	26%	upset
1	22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	93%
1	23	Boston College	University of South Florida	77%
1	24	Stanford University	Boston University	76%
1	25	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	52%
1	27	Yale University	Brown University	73%
1	28	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	68%
1	29	Harvard University	University of South Florida	66%
1	30	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	37%	upset
1	31	College of Charleston	Boston College	60%
1	32	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	31%	upset
1	33	Yale University	Roger Williams University	53%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	85%
1	35	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	70%
1	37	Harvard University	Brown University	53%
1	38	Bowdoin College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14%	upset
1	39	Roger Williams University	Boston College	51%
1	40	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	85%
1	41	University of South Florida	Yale University	20%	upset
1	42	Tufts University	Stanford University	13%	upset
1	43	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	68%
1	45	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	65%
1	46	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	68%
1	47	Boston College	Brown University	68%
1	48	Bowdoin College	Boston University	52%
1	49	Yale University	College of Charleston	45%	upset
1	50	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	47%	upset
1	51	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
1	53	University of South Florida	Brown University	41%	upset
1	54	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	79%
1	55	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	58%
1	56	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	13%	upset
1	57	Dartmouth College	Boston University	76%
1	58	Boston College	Tufts University	82%
1	60	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14%	upset
1	61	Stanford University	University of South Florida	83%
1	62	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	46%	upset
1	63	Boston University	Roger Williams University	30%	upset
1	64	Yale University	Bowdoin College	75%
1	65	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
1	67	University of South Florida	Tufts University	58%
1	68	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	43%	upset
1	69	Brown University	Boston University	49%	upset
1	70	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	73%
1	71	College of Charleston	Stanford University	51%
1	72	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	49%	upset
1	73	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	74%
1	74	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of South Florida	90%
1	75	Harvard University	Boston University	56%
1	76	Boston College	Bowdoin College	70%
1	77	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	70%
1	78	Yale University	Stanford University	46%	upset
1	79	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	54%
1	80	College of Charleston	Tufts University	87%
1	81	Connecticut College	University of South Florida	53%
1	82	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	28%	upset
1	83	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	75%
1	84	Brown University	Stanford University	23%	upset
1	85	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	46%	upset
1	86	Bowdoin College	College of Charleston	23%	upset
1	87	Yale University	Tufts University	85%
1	88	Boston University	University of South Florida	60%
1	89	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	29%	upset
1	91	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	59%
1	92	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	College of Charleston	12%	upset
1	93	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	43%	upset
1	94	Boston College	Boston University	71%
1	95	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	83%
1	96	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Yale University	68%
1	97	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
1	98	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	39%	upset
1	99	Stanford University	Harvard University	73%
1	100	College of Charleston	Boston University	76%
1	101	Bowdoin College	Brown University	51%
1	103	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	25%	upset
1	104	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	105	Harvard University	Tufts University	68%
1	106	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of South Florida	77%
1	107	Bowdoin College	Dartmouth College	51%
1	109	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
1	110	Boston College	Stanford University	36%	upset
1	111	Brown University	Tufts University	66%
1	112	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	69%
1	113	Bowdoin College	University of South Florida	58%
1	115	Yale University	Boston University	73%
1	116	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	64%
1	117	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	118	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	65%
1	119	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	74%
1	120	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	41%	upset
6	121	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	45%	upset
6	122	Bowdoin College	Yale University	24%	upset
6	123	Harvard University	Boston College	34%	upset
6	124	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	49%	upset
6	125	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	36%	upset
6	126	Boston College	Bowdoin College	70%
6	127	Yale University	Harvard University	70%
6	128	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	76%
6	129	Boston College	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
6	130	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	43%	upset
6	131	Yale University	Roger Williams University	53%
6	132	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	46%	upset
6	133	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
6	134	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	31%	upset
6	135	Yale University	Boston College	55%
6	136	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	55%
6	137	Bowdoin College	Yale University	24%	upset
6	138	Boston College	Harvard University	65%
6	139	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	49%	upset
6	140	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	36%	upset
6	141	Boston College	Bowdoin College	69%
6	142	Yale University	Harvard University	70%
6	143	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	24%	upset
6	144	Boston College	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
6	145	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	57%
6	146	Yale University	Roger Williams University	54%
6	147	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	54%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Engineers	Hawks	Bears	Cougars	Cardinal	Green	Statesmen	Camels	Bears	Bulls	Jumbos	Terriers
Boston College Eagles	13–2	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	11–4	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	9–6	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	9–6	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10–5	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	10–5	W	L	W	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
Brown University Bears	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–7	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	8–7	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8–7	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	5–10	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–10	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–12	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Engineers	Hawks
Boston College Eagles	6–3	✕	L	W	W	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	7–2	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–4	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–4	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–6	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
2	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
3	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
4	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
5	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
6	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
7	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
8	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
9	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
10	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
12	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
13	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
14	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
15	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
16	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
17	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
18	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
19	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
20	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
21	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
22	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
23	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
24	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
25	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
26	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
27	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
28	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
29	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
31	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
32	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
33	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
34	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
35	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6 OCS
37	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
38	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
39	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
40	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
41	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
42	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
43	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
44	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
45	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
46	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
48	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
49	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
50	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
51	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
52	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
53	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
55	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
56	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
57	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
58	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
59	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
61	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
62	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
63	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
65	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
66	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
67	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
68	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
69	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
70	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
71	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
72	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
73	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
74	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
75	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
76	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
77	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
78	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
79	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
80	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
81	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
82	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
83	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
84	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
85	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
86	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
87	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
88	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
89	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
90	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
91	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
92	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
93	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
94	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
95	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
96	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
97	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
98	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
99	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
100	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
101	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
102	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
103	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
104	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
105	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
106	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
107	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
108	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
109	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
110	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
111	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
112	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
113	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
114	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
115	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
116	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
117	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
118	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
119	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
120	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
121	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
122	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
123	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
124	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
125	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
126	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
127	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
128	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
129	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
130	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
131	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
132	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
133	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
134	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
135	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
136	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5 RAF
137	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
138	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
139	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
140	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
141	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
142	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
143	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
144	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
145	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
146	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
147	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Sophia Reineke '21 Wade Waddell '19	Alice Bohan '18 Emma Perry '19 Lily Mcgrath '18 Tara Ferraris '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Yale University	Bulldogs	Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Kira Woods '19 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Louisa Lindgren '19 Hannah Konkel '20 Marie Bergsund '20 Emily Gonzalez '20 Nora Cullen '18
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Henry Burnes '22 Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18 Taylor Ladd '18	Kevin Coakley '18 Catherine Tang '19 Zennie Wey '20 Christine Gosioco '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Cutter O'Connell '18 Trevor Long '19 Ty Ingram '18	Julia Cho '20 John Ped '21 Greta Farrell '18 Joseph Mastrandrea '21 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 Stephen Duncan '20
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Spencer Cartwright '22	Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18 Michael Mcbrien '18
Brown University	Bears	Lindsey Baab '18 Patrick Shanahan '19 Quinn Andersen '18 Sam Alexander '18	Abigayle Konys '19 Julia Kim '18 Julia Reynolds '22 Emily Ito '19 Sawyer Balint '20
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Stefano Peschiera '18	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Will La Dow '18 William Marshall '19	Kathryn Booker '19 Elena Vandenberg '18 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Cassie Obel '19
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Audrey Giblin '20 Christopher Williford '19 Duncan Williford '18 Erik Weis '18	Sophia Diserio '18 Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Paige Clarke '20 Eloise Burn '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20 Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	Lindsey Kloc '19 Haley Okun '18 Maya Weber '20
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18	Cecilia Moreira '20 Gwynie Dunlevy '20 Elizabeth Davis '21 Erin Smith '19 Albert Rodiger '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Austin Lettengarver '19 Mack Fox '20 Shane Riera '21	Maddie Ekin '20 Christina Nothacker '21 Brian Nelson '21
University of South Florida	Bulls	Brendan Feeney '18 Michael Sanandajian '18 Sean Cornell '18	Darby Capellin '19 Mandi Dickie '18 Rachel Daye '18
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Christopher Keller '19 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 Jack Bitney '19	Ian Morgan '19 Michelle Chisdak '18 Lindsay Powers '21 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Lara Dienemann '18
Boston University	Terriers	Josh Dochoda '20 Michael Sabourin '20 Ravi Parent '18 Robby Gearon '19 Sam Morrell '21	Hannah Davis '19 Carly Berry '21 Grace Mooradian '21 Lexi Pline '19 Erica Brown '21

Conditions — 03/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 36% · Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity36% Pressure1022.2 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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