Stanford University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.20 (fleet 4.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 165–71 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 60–20 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 5 | 42–24 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 33–18 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 30–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 17 graded regattas (236 matches) the record is 165–71 against 169.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.62 | 3.53 | 14–8 | 14.4 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2018-04-28 | Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | skipper | 3.58 | 6.58 | 9–0 | 8.4 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.67 | 2.86 | 7–7 | 9.4 | −0.80 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.71 | 3.34 | 11–4 | 11.9 | −0.36 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.90 | 5.32 | 19–1 | 16.8 | +1.42 | 1.9 | 12% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 4.04 | 3.58 | 11–11 | 12.8 | −0.47 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2017-04-30 | PCCSC Team Race Championships - Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 4.06 | 2.70 | 7–1 | 7.7 | −1.36 | 0.7 | 97% |
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.91 | 4.19 | 10–4 | 9.3 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.90 | 3.06 | 3–6 | 4.6 | −0.84 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2017-02-25 | 2017 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 4.01 | 2.35 | 11–2 | 12.5 | −1.66 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 4.04 | 3.51 | 13–9 | 14.9 | −0.53 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2016-04-24 | PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 4.16 | 7.16 | 5–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 96% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.87 | 3.99 | 15–9 | 14.4 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 49% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.67 | 6.67 | 5–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.81 | 4.30 | 5–4 | 4.2 | +0.49 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.71 | 4.12 | 13–5 | 11.7 | +0.41 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.66 | 6.66 | 7–0 | 6.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 62% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Will La Dow |  Point Loma High School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
