LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship

HostOld Dominion
Date05/26/2018
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	20–5
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	19–8
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	19–8
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	19–8
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–8
6	Boston College	Eagles	14–8
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–8
8	George Washington University	Colonials	10–12
9	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–8
10	Cornell University	Big Red	5–10
11	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	5–10
12	University of South Florida	Bulls	4–11
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	3–12
14	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	2–13
15	University of Michigan	Wolverines	2–13
16	University of Washington	Huskies	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,607 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 122 of 157 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.395 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.18: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	6	10.83 school +0.37	Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.12 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.54 Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.79	60%	20–5 (80%)	+5.1
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	11.37 school +0.22	Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.75 Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.73 Conner Harding / Michael Mcbrien 3.65	70%	19–8 (70%)	+0.2
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	11.05 school +0.17	Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.31 16–8 Greiner Hobbs / Haley Okun 3.91 14–7 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.64 12–6 Hector Guzman / Russell Merchant 3.64 7–2 Greiner Hobbs / Kyle Easton 3.89 5–1 Charles Miller / Maya Weber 3.28 3–0	63%	19–8 (70%)	+1.9
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	8	10.83 school +0.06	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.45 16–8 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 3.90 16–8 William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.35 13–6 William Logue / Rose Edwards 3.61 5–2 Roger Dorr / Rebecca Fung 3.54 2–0 Sean Segerblom / Caroline Teare 3.54 2–0 Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.55 1–0 Jack Marshall / Grace Hanrahan 3.27 1–0 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 3.82 1–0	58%	19–8 (70%)	+3.3
5	Stanford University Cardinal	3	11.04 school +0.58	Jacob Rosenberg / Kathryn Booker 3.16 Will La Dow / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.62 13–8 Romain Screve / Sarah Placek 3.64 13–6 Romain Screve / Elena Vandenberg 3.56 1–2 Will La Dow / Madeline Bubb 3.70 1–0	65%	14–8 (64%)	−0.4
6	Boston College Eagles	7	10.72 school +0.20	Wade Waddell / Emma Perry 3.49 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.17 10–3 Charles Sinks / Megan Bamford 3.82 8–2 Charles Sinks / Alice Bohan 3.84 4–4 Sophia Reineke / Megan Bamford 3.28 2–3 Charles Sinks / Tara Ferraris 3.71 2–2 Sophia Reineke / Peter Lynn 3.21 2–2	60%	14–8 (64%)	+0.9
7	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.44 school +0.25	Malcolm Lamphere / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.66 Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.10 Shawn Harvey / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.45 10–7 Shawn Harvey / Claudia Loiacono 3.24 4–1	74%	14–8 (64%)	−2.3
8	George Washington University Colonials	10	10.24 school +0.13	Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.38 Kai Friesecke / Miranda Bakos 3.62 Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.12 6–10 Derek Poon Tip / Isabel Strachan 2.98 4–2	49%	10–12 (45%)	−0.9
9	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	10.43 school +0.20	Christopher Williford / Sophia Diserio 3.76 5–5 Duncan Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.45 4–5 Duncan Williford / Paige Clarke 3.48 3–3 Jack Mcgraw / Timothy Greenhouse 2.94 3–3 Jack Mcgraw / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.12 1–3 Christopher Williford / Timothy Greenhouse 3.54 0–3 Jack Mcgraw / Paige Clarke 3.17 1–2 Christopher Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.75 2–0 Jack Mcgraw / Alyssa Berger 2.97 2–0	60%	7–8 (47%)	−2.0
10	Cornell University Big Red	12	8.86 school +0.27	Thomas Balk / Adeline Sutton 2.81 5–8 Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 3.15 3–7 Luke Andersen / Kimberly Wong 2.61 3–7 Luke Andersen / Kate Selley 2.65 2–3 Clark Uhl / Tara Bergstrom 3.13 2–1 Clark Uhl / Ethan Andersen 3.15 0–2 Thomas Balk / Tara Bergstrom 2.75 0–2	36%	5–10 (33%)	−0.5
11	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	9	9.85 school +0.22	Neil Stapleton / Claire Hunt 3.26 Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 3.12 4–9 Christopher Weis / Samantha Obel 3.24 3–9 Lucas Pierce / Robert Johnson 3.10 3–2	52%	5–10 (33%)	−2.7
12	University of South Florida Bulls	11	9.07 school +0.18	Andrew Baird / Preston Senior 3.01 4–9 Sean Cornell / John Monahan 3.45 3–8 Scott Ewing / Darby Capellin 2–5 Brendan Feeney / Darby Capellin 2.93 1–4 Michael Sanandajian / Rachel Yannelli 2.77 0–2 Brendan Feeney / Rachel Daye 2.87 1–1 Sean Cornell / Rachel Daye 3.54 1–1 Brendan Feeney / John Monahan 2.80 0–1 Brendan Feeney / Rachel Yannelli 3.02 0–1 Preston Senior / Rachel Daye 0–1	38%	4–11 (27%)	−1.7
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	14	6.76 school −0.33	Jonathan Sager / Ava Cares 1.72 3–11 Alex Schwinn / Savannah Mapes 2.29 3–10 John Hanna / Christa Hvidsten 2.92 3–8 John Hanna / Dean Bethel 2.93 0–4 Alex Schwinn / Christa Hvidsten 2.34 0–2 Jonathan Sager / Christa Hvidsten 1.77 0–1	13%	3–12 (20%)	+1.1
14	University of Wisconsin Badgers	15	6.70 school −0.05	Charles Bocklet / Thomas Kelly 2.47 2–11 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Peter Sauer 2.40 0–9 Noah Janssen / Brianna Probst 1.86 2–5 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Olivia Staruck 2.40 2–4 Noah Janssen / River Carson 1.88 0–5 Charles Bocklet / Maggie Houtz 2.41 0–2 Andrea Sullivan / Maggie Houtz 0–2 Andrea Sullivan / Thomas Kelly 0–1	12%	2–13 (13%)	+0.1
15	University of Michigan Wolverines	13	7.20 school −0.10	August Sturm / Sofia Gambini 2.78 Colton Gerber / Sarah Silvestri 2.03 Mason Wolters / Michael Gapuz 2.46	19%	2–13 (13%)	−0.9
16	University of Washington Huskies	16	6.13 school −0.19	Erik Skeel / Johanna Mannisto 2.21 Karl Skeel / Cora Knauss 2.20 Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali 1.84	8%	0–15 (0%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	College of Charleston	10.83	11.99	20–5	14.9	+1.16	4.0	2%
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	6.76	7.64	3–12	1.9	+0.89	0.7	28%
4	Georgetown University	10.83	11.47	19–8	15.7	+0.64	1.5	11%
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.05	11.41	19–8	17.1	+0.36	0.5	28%
6	Boston College	10.72	10.95	14–8	13.1	+0.22	0.1	42%
14	University of Wisconsin	6.70	6.82	2–13	1.9	+0.12	0.0	63%
2	Roger Williams University	11.37	11.42	19–8	18.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
5	Stanford University	11.04	10.95	14–8	14.4	−0.09	0.0	67%
8	George Washington University	10.24	10.01	10–12	10.9	−0.22	0.1	75%
10	Cornell University	8.86	8.59	5–10	5.5	−0.26	0.1	76%
7	Yale University	11.44	10.87	14–8	16.3	−0.58	1.0	92%
15	University of Michigan	7.20	6.50	2–13	2.9	−0.71	0.4	89%
9	Dartmouth College	10.43	9.56	7–8	9.0	−0.86	1.2	95%
12	University of South Florida	9.07	8.09	4–11	5.7	−0.97	1.2	95%
11	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.85	8.48	5–10	7.7	−1.37	2.6	99%
16	University of Washington	6.13	3.13	0–15	1.2	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.54	4.70	20–5	14.9	+1.16	4.0	2%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.79	4.95	20–5	14.9	+1.16	4.0	2%
Alex Schwinn	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.29	3.18	3–12	1.9	+0.89	0.7	28%
Jonathan Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.72	2.61	3–12	1.9	+0.89	0.7	28%
John Hanna	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.92	3.81	3–12	1.9	+0.89	0.7	28%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.35	3.99	18–8	14.7	+0.63	1.5	11%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.31	3.67	19–8	17.1	+0.36	0.5	28%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.49	3.72	14–8	13.1	+0.22	0.1	42%
Noah Janssen	University of Wisconsin	1.86	2.03	2–10	1.8	+0.17	0.0	61%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	2.47	2.59	2–13	1.9	+0.12	0.0	63%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.40	2.53	2–13	1.9	+0.12	0.0	63%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.73	3.77	19–8	18.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.65	3.70	19–8	18.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.38	3.16	10–12	10.9	−0.22	0.1	75%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.15	2.88	5–10	5.5	−0.26	0.1	76%
Scott Ewing	University of South Florida	2.00	1.49	2–5	2.5	−0.51	0.2	84%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.10	3.53	14–8	16.3	−0.58	1.0	92%
August Sturm	University of Michigan	2.78	2.07	2–13	2.9	−0.71	0.4	89%
Mason Wolters	University of Michigan	2.46	1.76	2–13	2.9	−0.71	0.4	89%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	3.01	2.30	4–9	5.1	−0.71	0.5	90%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.45	2.73	4–9	5.1	−0.73	0.6	90%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.12	1.75	4–9	6.3	−1.37	2.2	99%
Neil Stapleton	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.26	1.89	5–10	7.7	−1.37	2.6	99%
Brendan Feeney	University of South Florida	2.93	1.44	2–7	3.3	−1.50	1.3	98%
Andrea Sullivan	University of Wisconsin	1.75	-1.25	0–3	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Boston College	55%
1	2	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	49%	upset
1	3	Yale University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	4	Roger Williams University	University of Washington	100%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	69%
1	6	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	83%
1	7	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Michigan	94%
1	9	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	10	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
1	11	Yale University	Stanford University	61%
1	12	Georgetown University	University of Washington	99%
1	13	George Washington University	University of South Florida	66%
1	14	Cornell University	University of California at Santa Barbara	27%	upset
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	16	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	96%
1	17	Boston College	Yale University	31%	upset
1	18	College of Charleston	University of Washington	99%
1	19	George Washington University	Stanford University	32%	upset
1	20	Georgetown University	Cornell University	87%
1	21	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	22	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	73%
1	23	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	24	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	97%
1	25	Stanford University	University of South Florida	81%
1	26	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	76%
1	27	Yale University	George Washington University	73%
1	28	Cornell University	University of Washington	94%
1	29	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Wisconsin	50%
1	30	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	98%
1	31	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	59%
1	32	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	61%
1	33	Yale University	University of South Florida	93%
1	34	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Washington	97%
1	35	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	36	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	97%
1	37	George Washington University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
1	38	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	93%
1	39	Boston College	University of South Florida	89%
1	40	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	75%
1	41	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	42	University of Michigan	University of Washington	75%
1	43	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Stanford University	50%
1	44	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	45	University of South Florida	Texas A&M University at Galveston	94%
1	46	Roger Williams University	University of California at Santa Barbara	82%
1	47	Boston College	George Washington University	61%
1	48	College of Charleston	Cornell University	88%
1	49	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	56%
1	50	Dartmouth College	University of Washington	99%
1	51	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	52	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	58%
1	53	George Washington University	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	54	Cornell University	University of Michigan	84%
1	55	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of South Florida	82%
1	56	Dartmouth College	University of California at Santa Barbara	62%
1	57	College of Charleston	Stanford University	47%	upset
1	58	Boston College	University of Washington	99%
1	59	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	60	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	77%
1	61	University of Wisconsin	University of Michigan	38%	upset
1	62	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of California at Santa Barbara	76%
1	63	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	94%
1	64	Yale University	Cornell University	93%
1	65	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	66	Boston College	Georgetown University	49%	upset
1	67	University of Wisconsin	University of Washington	64%
1	68	Roger Williams University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	69	College of Charleston	George Washington University	63%
1	70	University of South Florida	Cornell University	49%	upset
1	71	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	98%
1	72	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	83%
1	73	Stanford University	Georgetown University	57%
1	74	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	75	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	76	Boston College	Cornell University	87%
1	77	George Washington University	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
1	78	Yale University	University of Michigan	99%
1	79	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of South Florida	74%
1	80	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Washington	99%
1	81	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	82	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	58%
1	83	Dartmouth College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
1	84	George Washington University	University of Michigan	96%
1	85	Boston College	University of California at Santa Barbara	69%
1	86	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	90%
1	87	Yale University	University of Washington	100%
1	88	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	89	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	83%
1	90	Georgetown University	George Washington University	62%
1	91	Stanford University	University of Michigan	98%
1	92	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	66%
1	93	Cornell University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	88%
1	94	College of Charleston	Boston College	50%	upset
1	95	University of South Florida	University of Washington	94%
1	96	Roger Williams University	Yale University	47%	upset
1	97	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	76%
1	98	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	99	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Michigan	41%	upset
1	100	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
1	101	George Washington University	Cornell University	78%
1	102	Yale University	Georgetown University	67%
1	103	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	73%
1	104	Roger Williams University	Boston College	66%
1	105	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Washington	67%
1	106	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	107	Stanford University	Cornell University	90%
1	108	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	57%
1	109	Yale University	Dartmouth College	71%
1	110	Boston College	University of Michigan	97%
1	111	George Washington University	University of Washington	98%
1	112	University of California at Santa Barbara	Texas A&M University at Galveston	95%
1	113	Cornell University	University of Wisconsin	89%
1	114	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	76%
1	115	College of Charleston	Yale University	34%	upset
1	116	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
1	117	Boston College	Dartmouth College	51%
1	118	Stanford University	University of Washington	99%
1	119	George Washington University	University of California at Santa Barbara	56%
1	120	University of Michigan	University of South Florida	47%	upset
4	149	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
4	150	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	49%	upset
4	151	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	58%
4	152	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	45%	upset
4	153	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
4	154	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
4	155	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	58%
4	156	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	56%
4	157	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
8	121	Boston College	Yale University	31%	upset
8	122	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
8	123	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	50%	upset
8	124	College of Charleston	George Washington University	63%
8	125	Yale University	Roger Williams University	53%
8	126	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	59%
8	127	Georgetown University	George Washington University	62%
8	128	College of Charleston	Stanford University	47%	upset
8	129	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	58%
8	130	Yale University	George Washington University	73%
8	131	Stanford University	Boston College	56%
8	132	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	51%
8	133	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	68%
8	134	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	58%
8	135	Georgetown University	Yale University	33%	upset
8	136	Boston College	College of Charleston	50%
8	137	Stanford University	George Washington University	69%
8	138	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
8	139	Boston College	Roger Williams University	34%	upset
8	140	College of Charleston	Yale University	34%	upset
8	141	Georgetown University	Stanford University	43%	upset
8	142	George Washington University	Boston College	39%	upset
8	143	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Yale University	44%	upset
8	144	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	63%
8	145	Georgetown University	Boston College	51%
8	146	Stanford University	Yale University	39%	upset
8	147	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	77%
8	148	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	56%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hawks	Statesmen	Hoyas	Cardinal	Eagles	Bulldogs	Colonials	Green	Red	Gauchos	Bulls	Aggies	Badgers	Wolverines	Huskies
College of Charleston Cougars	14–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	13–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	13–2	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	10–5	W	L	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	10–5	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	11–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	12–3	L	L	W	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	9–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
University of Washington Huskies	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hawks	Statesmen	Hoyas
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	✕	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–3	L	✕	W	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–3	L	L	✕	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–2	W	W	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hawks	Statesmen	Hoyas	Cardinal	Eagles	Bulldogs	Colonials
College of Charleston Cougars	4–3	✕	L	L	W	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	W	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–4	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Yale University Bulldogs	2–5	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
2	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
3	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
4	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
5	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
6	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
7	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
8	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
10	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
12	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
13	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
14	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
15	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
16	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
17	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
18	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
19	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
20	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
21	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
22	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
23	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
24	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
27	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
28	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
29	Aggies	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
30	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
31	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
32	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
33	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
34	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
35	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
36	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
37	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
38	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
39	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
42	Wolverines	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
43	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
45	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
46	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
48	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
49	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
50	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
52	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
53	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
54	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
55	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
56	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
57	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
58	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
60	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
61	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
62	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
63	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
65	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
66	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
67	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
68	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
69	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
70	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
71	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
72	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
73	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
74	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
75	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
76	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
77	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
78	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
79	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
80	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
81	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
82	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
83	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
84	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
85	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
86	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
88	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
89	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
90	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
91	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
92	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
93	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
94	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
95	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
96	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
97	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
98	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
99	Aggies	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
100	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
101	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
102	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
103	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
104	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
105	Aggies	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
106	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
107	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
108	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
109	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
110	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
111	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
112	Gauchos	1-4-5	def.	Aggies	2-3-6
113	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
114	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
115	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
116	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
117	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
118	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
119	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
120	Wolverines	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
149	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
150	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
151	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
152	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
153	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
154	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
155	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
156	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
157	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
121	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
122	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
123	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
124	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
125	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
126	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
127	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
128	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
129	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
130	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
131	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
132	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
133	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
134	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
135	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
136	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
137	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
138	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
139	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
140	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
141	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
142	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
143	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
144	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
145	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
146	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
147	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
148	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Christophe Killian '18 Stefano Peschiera '18	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Grace Mccarthy '18
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Maya Weber '20 Lindsey Kloc '19 Kyle Easton '20 Haley Okun '18 Russell Merchant '19
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andy Reiter '19 Jack Marshall '18 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Claire Mohun '19 Grace Hanrahan '18 Haley Shea '19 Rebecca Fung '19 Meaghan Macrae '18 Caroline Teare '21 Rose Edwards '18
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Romain Screve '21 Will La Dow '18	Kathryn Booker '19 Sarah Placek '18 Elena Vandenberg '18 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Madeline Bubb '20
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Sophia Reineke '21 Wade Waddell '19	Alice Bohan '18 Megan Bamford '18 Tara Ferraris '19 Peter Lynn '19 Emma Perry '19
Yale University	Bulldogs	Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Claudia Loiacono '21
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Matthew Homa '18 Shira Golub '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Miranda Bakos '18
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Williford '19 Duncan Williford '18 Jack Mcgraw '20	Sophia Diserio '18 Timothy Greenhouse '21 Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Paige Clarke '20 Alyssa Berger '19
Cornell University	Big Red	Clark Uhl '19 Luke Andersen '18 Thomas Balk '18	Diana Otis '19 Ethan Andersen '20 Tara Bergstrom '18 Kimberly Wong '19 Kate Selley '20 Adeline Sutton '21
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Christopher Weis '18 Lucas Pierce '21 Neil Stapleton '18 Sterling Henken '18	Samantha Obel '21 Robert Johnson '19 Claire Hunt '19 Elizabeth Moody '20
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Michael Sanandajian '18 Preston Senior '19 Scott Ewing '18 Sean Cornell '18	Preston Senior '19 Darby Capellin '19 John Monahan '20 Rachel Daye '18 Rachel Yannelli '19
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Alex Schwinn '19 John Hanna '19 Jonathan Sager '20	Savannah Mapes '19 Christa Hvidsten '21 Dean Bethel '19 Ava Cares '20
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Andrea Sullivan '18 Charles Bocklet '18 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Noah Janssen '19	Thomas Kelly '20 Maggie Houtz '19 Peter Sauer '20 Olivia Staruck '20 River Carson '21 Brianna Probst '20
University of Michigan	Wolverines	August Sturm '20 Colton Gerber '18 Mason Wolters '18	Sofia Gambini '19 Sarah Silvestri '19 Michael Gapuz '18
University of Washington	Huskies	Erik Skeel '20 Hayden Potter '20 Karl Skeel '20	Johanna Mannisto '18 Farzana Mohamedali '20 Cora Knauss '18

Conditions — 05/26/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

81°F

↑ 85°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 85°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.3 kn

avg · max 12.4 kn

Gusts to 22.7 kn

From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1013.3 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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