University of Washington '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 51.12 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 24 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.01 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 (fleet 2.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 29–28 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 15–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 11–16 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (55 matches) the record is 27–28 against 30.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-09 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 2.43 | 0.58 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.85 | 1.2 | 99% |
| 2019-04-20 | NWICSA Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.31 | 1.67 | 5–1 | 5.4 | −0.64 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2019-04-06 | NWICSA Island Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 2.59 | 6–2 | 5.7 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 1.57 | 2–5 | 2.6 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.20 | -0.80 | 0–15 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 2018-04-14 | NWICSA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.20 | 1.75 | 5–1 | 5.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 86% |
| 2018-03-03 | NWICSA Team Race | skipper | 2.17 | 5.17 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 2017-03-04 | NWICSA Team Race | skipper | 2.28 | 0.54 | 2–2 | 3.2 | −1.75 | 1.6 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.2 | 5.34 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 2.63 |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 3 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 2.64 |
| North North Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 1.83 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 2.57 |
| Cascadia Cup Gold | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.2 | 3.81 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Canada Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.0 | 3.23 |
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 2.37 |
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 1.43 |
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 3.18 |
| Rainier Cup Combined | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 2.70 |
| NWICSA Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| NWICSA Island Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| NWICSA Co-ed Champs | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.0 | 1.54 |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 2.07 |
| NWICSA Match Race Championships | Crew | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| North/North JV | Crew | A | 12 | 1.2 | — |
| ICSA Match Race National Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 11 | 3.8 | 3.60 |
| Cascadia Cup Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.3 | 4.06 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.0 | -0.22 |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.0 | 2.38 |
| NWICSA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| NWICSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.4 | 3.20 |
| Outlaw | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.9 | 3.05 |
| NWICSA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | -0.35 |
| NWICSA Match Race Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| ICSA Match Race Nationals Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 2.36 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| South Designate | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 2.56 |
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.1 | 1.63 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 2.65 |
| NWICSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NWICSA Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.5 | -0.96 |
| North North JV | Skipper | A, B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Karl Skeel |  Woodinville High School |
'16 |
| ISSA | Karl Skeel |  Ballard High School |
'16 |
| ISSA | Karl Skeel |  Ingraham High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
