| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Oregon State University | Beavers | 2–4 |
| 3 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Oregon | Ducks | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,487 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 12 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.637 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.16 ± 0.55: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies | 1 | 6.21 school −0.12 | Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali 1.88 Erik Skeel / Johanna Mannisto 2.21 Karl Skeel / Cora Knauss 2.20 | 88% | 5–1 (83%) | −0.3 |
| 2 | Oregon State University Beavers | 2 | 4.62 school +0.15 | Matthew Reynolds / Kyle Padgett 1.85 Michael Levy / Natalie Shaw 1.59 4–0 Quanah Green / Nick Drachnik 0.97 2–2 Thomas Hope / Natalie Shaw 1.67 0–2 Quanah Green / Thomas Hope 1.02 2–0 | 55% | 4–2 (67%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Western Washington University Vikings | 3 | 4.63 school +0.30 | Chloe Dawson / Camille Ottaway 1.90 Ezekiel Ward / Alanna Halliday 1.04 Dillon Kilroy / Harrison Saliba 1.34 | 55% | 2–4 (33%) | −1.3 |
| 4 | University of Oregon Ducks | 4 | 0.80 school +0.14 | Sam Reul 0.57 Duncan Jackson Marelie Vorster / Katie Calder | 2% | 1–5 (17%) | +0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | University of Oregon | 0.80 | 3.35 | 1–5 | 0.1 | +2.55 | 2.2 | 9% |
| 2 | Oregon State University | 4.62 | 5.42 | 4–2 | 3.3 | +0.80 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 1 | University of Washington | 6.21 | 5.76 | 5–1 | 5.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 86% |
| 3 | Western Washington University | 4.63 | 2.61 | 2–4 | 3.3 | −2.02 | 1.7 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reul | University of Oregon | 0.57 | 3.12 | 1–5 | 0.1 | +2.55 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Duncan Jackson | University of Oregon | -0.03 | 2.52 | 1–5 | 0.1 | +2.55 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Ezekiel Ward | Western Washington University | 1.04 | -0.98 | 2–4 | 3.3 | −2.02 | 1.7 | 99% |
| Dillon Kilroy | Western Washington University | 1.34 | -0.68 | 2–4 | 3.3 | −2.02 | 1.7 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Beavers | Vikings | Ducks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies | 2–1 | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 2–1 | W | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Beavers | Vikings | Ducks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Oregon Ducks | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Vikings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Beavers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Vikings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Beavers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Ducks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Huskies | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ducks | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Washington | Huskies | Erik Skeel '20 Hayden Potter '20 Karl Skeel '20 |
Johanna Mannisto '18 Farzana Mohamedali '20 Cora Knauss '18 |
|
Oregon State University | Beavers | Matthew Reynolds '20 Michael Levy '19 Quanah Green '18 Thomas Hope '20 |
Kyle Padgett '21 Natalie Shaw '20 Nick Drachnik '20 Thomas Hope '20 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings | Chloe Dawson '20 Dillon Kilroy '19 Ezekiel Ward '20 |
Camille Ottaway '20 Harrison Saliba '21 Alanna Halliday '21 |
|
University of Oregon | Ducks | Duncan Jackson '19 Marelie Vorster '20 Sam Reul '19 |
Katie Calder '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
