Western Washington University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.91 (fleet 2.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–12 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 4–8 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 8–12 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-03 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 2.08 | 0.10 | 2–2 | 3.2 | −1.98 | 1.7 | 99% |
| 2018-04-14 | NWICSA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.90 | -0.12 | 2–4 | 3.3 | −2.02 | 1.7 | 99% |
| 2018-03-03 | NWICSA Team Race | skipper | 1.88 | -0.54 | 2–4 | 4.3 | −2.43 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2017-03-04 | NWICSA Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 0.98 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.94 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North Varsity | Skipper | A | 14 | 1.9 | 3.24 |
| Cascadia Cup Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.0 | 2.41 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 2.48 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 3.61 |
| NWICSA Women's Qualifier Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.0 | — |
| NWICSA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| NWICSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | A | 8 | 18.9 | 1.88 |
| NWICSA Match Race Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| North/North | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 2.70 |
| Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.0 | 1.83 |
| Cascadia Cup GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 1.01 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.3 | 2.63 |
| Western Canada Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 2.10 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.0 | 1.44 |
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.4 | 3.54 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A, B | 3 | 3.7 | 0.60 |
| NWICSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Alpha Worlds | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 2.95 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NWICSA Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.0 | 2.16 |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.7 | 1.23 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Chloe Dawson |  Lycee Francais de Chicago |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
