| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 4 | 4–1 |
| 3 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
University of British Columbia | UBC Thunderbirds | 0–5 |
| 5 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 1–4 |
| 6 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,839 team race matches sailed before 2019-02-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 10 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.33 ± 0.57: a typical event, more orderly than 18% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies | 3.71 | 6.71 | 4–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 4.6 | 3% |
| 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 4 | 4.97 | 4.76 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 2.80 | 1.79 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −1.02 | 0.3 | 95% |
| 3 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 4.64 | 2.67 | 2–2 | 3.2 | −1.98 | 1.7 | 99% |
| 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 0.02 | -2.98 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Kilroy | Western Washington University | 1.59 | 1.38 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Axel Greening | Western Washington University | 1.75 | 1.54 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Carter Dojan | Western Washington University | 0.24 | -0.77 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −1.02 | 0.3 | 95% |
| Chandler Sharp | Western Washington University | 0.96 | -1.02 | 2–2 | 3.2 | −1.98 | 1.7 | 99% |
| Nikoline Alden | Western Washington University | 0.74 | -2.26 | 0–3 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Emily Hammond | Western Washington University | -0.12 | -3.12 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Tor Gammelin | Western Washington University | -0.21 | -3.21 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Wyatt Keysor | Western Washington University | -0.33 | -3.33 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 85% | |
| 1 | 2 | University of Washington Huskies | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 98% | |
| 1 | 4 | University of Washington Huskies | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 77% | |
| 1 | 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 57% | |
| 1 | 7 | University of Washington Huskies | Western Washington University Vikings 4 | 33% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 92% | |
| 1 | 10 | Western Washington University Vikings 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 99% | |
| 1 | 11 | University of Washington Huskies | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 11% | upset |
| 1 | 13 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 99% | |
| 1 | 14 | Western Washington University Vikings 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 89% |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | 4 | 2 | Thunderbirds | 1 | 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 4 | 8–12 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 8–12 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds | 2–3 | L | W | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 8–12 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 8–12 | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | ✕ | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Vikings 4 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
UBC Thunderbirds | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Huskies | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 4 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
UBC Thunderbirds | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Huskies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 4 | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
UBC Thunderbirds | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Vikings 4 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
UBC Thunderbirds | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Vikings 4 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
UBC Thunderbirds | 3-4-6 OCS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Washington | Huskies | Connor Hughes '19 Hayden Potter '20 Ian Wolcott '20 Joanna Garcia '19 Karl Skeel '20 |
Maddie Tutton '21 Farzana Mohamedali '20 Sarah Kahle '22 Rachel Cohen '19 Avery Wolf '21 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 4 | Axel Greening '21 Dillon Kilroy '19 Niko Twilla '21 |
Julia Soes '21 Alanna Halliday '21 Fiona Mcbride '21 Rebecca Sharp '22 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | Chandler Sharp '19 Chloe Dawson '20 Kendall Kracke '20 |
Emily Tan '20 Camille Ottaway '20 Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20 |
|
University of British Columbia | UBC Thunderbirds | Nicolai Blasdel '22 Zelda Ladefoged '22 |
Lauren Wittkopf '22 Louise King '23 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | Carter Dojan '20 Clark Weitkamp '20 Marijke Jorna '21 Nikoline Alden '19 |
Madelyn Carr '20 Fiona Mcbride '21 Cece Nielsen '23 Jordanne Johnson '21 Hayley Rawden '20 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | Emily Hammond '20 Tor Gammelin '22 Wyatt Keysor '20 |
Amber Crabb '20 Laura Thompson '21 Amanda Stathas '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
