Western Washington University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17 (fleet 1.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–15 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 8–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 8–15 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-20 | NWICSA Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.73 | 2.43 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.71 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.76 | 1.60 | 3–10 | 3.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2019-02-03 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 1.75 | 1.54 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 1.76 |
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 1.38 |
| Rainier Cup Combined | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.3 | 0.31 |
| NWICSA Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.6 | 2.35 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Axel Greening |  Orcas High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
