Outlaw

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 25 14 39
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 18 25 43
3 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Gold 19 30 49
4 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 13 52 65
5 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 53 21 74
6 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Purple 44 33 77
7 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 45 45 90
8 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 42 52 94
9 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 56 49 105
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 1 1 2 1 4 1 13 Thomas Hope '20
Natalie Shaw '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 18 Axel Greening '21
Julia Soes '21
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Gold 4 3 2 1 4 1 4 19 Connor Hughes '19
Avery Wolf '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 1 4 4 6 5 2 3 25 Niko Twilla '21
Rebecca Sharp '22
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 6 5 5 7 7 7 5 42 Tor Gammelin '22
Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Purple 8 6 6 4 2 9 9 44 Shaan Shridhar '19
Kristan Lund '20
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 5 7 7 5 6 8 7 45 Lachlan Anders-Macleod '21
Ben Carsner '20
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 7 9 8 8 9 6 6 53 Emily Burns '20
Tillie Morris '22
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 9 8 9 9 8 5 8 56 Duncan Jackson '19
Keevan Tallon '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 4 1 3 1 1 2 2 14 Ezekiel Ward '20
Fiona Mcbride '21
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 1 4 5 2 3 3 3 21 Dillon Kilroy '19 [1-7]
Benjamin Green '20 [1-5]
Sally Goldman '20 [6-7]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 2 7 3 4 6 1 25 Nikoline Alden '19
Hayley Rawden '20
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Gold 3 3 2 5 2 7 8 30 John Kauffman '22
Sarah Kahle '22
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Purple 5 5 1 8 5 5 4 33 Ian Wolcott '20
Hayden Potter '20
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 7 DNF 9 6 6 1 6 45 Sally Goldman '20 [1-5]
Lachlan Anders-Macleod '21 [6-7]
Charlotte Brownstone '20 [1-5]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 8 DNF 6 9 7 4 5 49 Mandy Watson '21 [1-5]
Marelie Vorster '20 [6-7]
Marelie Vorster '20 [1-5]
Mandy Watson '21 [6-7]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 6 6 8 7 8 8 9 52 Wyatt Keysor '20
Emily Hammond '20
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 9 DNF 4 4 9 9 7 52 Kaden Ashdown '21
Aylee Tucker '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 272727272727272
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks73737373737373
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers5555555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Gold81818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Purple82828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 388888888888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 272727272727272
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks73737373737373
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers5555555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Gold81818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Purple82828282828282
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 388888888888888

Conditions — 10/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From SSE (154°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine2.7 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1015.1 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn* · S 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon State: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Oregon State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →