| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings | 2–4 |
| 3 |  |
Oregon State University | Beavers | 2–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,849 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 9 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.561 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Huskies | 1 | 6.15 school −0.12 | Connor Hughes / Cora Knauss 2.01 Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali 1.93 Karl Skeel / Avery Wolf 2.31 | 90% | 5–1 (83%) | −0.4 |
| 2 | Western Washington University Vikings | 3 | 3.58 school −0.28 | Niko Twilla / Rebecca Sharp 1.22 Harrison Saliba / Hayley Rawden Axel Greening / Julia Soes 1.73 | 22% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Oregon State University Beavers | 2 | 4.16 school +0.11 | Andrew Wilkinson / Kaden Ashdown 1.28 Thomas Hope / Natalie Shaw 1.60 Pierre Carr / Kyle Padgett | 38% | 2–4 (33%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Western Washington University | 3.58 | 4.29 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.71 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 3 | Oregon State University | 4.16 | 3.87 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 1 | University of Washington | 6.15 | 5.50 | 5–1 | 5.4 | −0.64 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Greening | Western Washington University | 1.73 | 2.43 | 2–4 | 1.3 | +0.71 | 0.4 | 39% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | Oregon State University | 1.28 | 1.00 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 79% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Vikings | Beavers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Vikings | Beavers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 0–2 | L | ✕ | L |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Huskies | Vikings | Beavers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Washington Huskies | 1–1 | ✕ | W | L |
| Western Washington University Vikings | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 1–1 | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Vikings | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Huskies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Beavers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Vikings | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Beavers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Washington | Huskies | Connor Hughes '19 Hayden Potter '20 Karl Skeel '20 |
Cora Knauss '18 Farzana Mohamedali '20 Avery Wolf '21 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings | Axel Greening '21 Harrison Saliba '21 Niko Twilla '21 |
Julia Soes '21 Hayley Rawden '20 Rebecca Sharp '22 |
|
Oregon State University | Beavers | Andrew Wilkinson '18 Pierre Carr '22 Thomas Hope '20 |
Kaden Ashdown '21 Kyle Padgett '21 Natalie Shaw '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
