Orcas High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (fleet 1.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–23 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 15–7 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–6 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 4–1 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 11–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 26–14 against 23.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 1.70 | 2.19 | 1–4 | 0.8 | +0.49 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2017-05-06 | NWISA Team Race Districts | skipper | 1.60 | 1.81 | 14–3 | 13.6 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2016-05-21 | NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity | skipper | 1.87 | 2.39 | 7–6 | 5.8 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2015-10-24 | Orcas Trick or Treat | skipper | 1.60 | 2.68 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +1.08 | 0.5 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined - GOLD | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.6 | -0.39 |
| NWISA Team Race Districts | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 1.64 |
| NWISA Doublehanded Districts | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 0.11 |
| Kitsap 10% Regatta - Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.8 | 1.47 |
| ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Island Cup Gold | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.1 | 2.85 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.0 | 1.20 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Team Race - GOLD | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA Olympia Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 3.19 |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 2.84 |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.4 | 1.29 |
| NWISA Doublehanded District Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 0.87 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Orcas Trick or Treat | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.6 | 1.99 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SSP Combined Division - GOLD | Skipper | B | 10 | 18.3 | -1.01 |
| Port Townsend Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 1.78 |
| NWISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWISA North Regionals | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 1.54 |
| Mt. Baker Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.3 | 1.00 |
| NWISA Kick Off | Skipper | A | 5 | 17.6 | -0.19 |
| NWISA Islands Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.2 | 1.55 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.8 | -2.58 |
| NWICSA Island Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 19.3 | -0.31 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Axel Greening |  Western Washington University |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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