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NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners V 0–0
2 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 0–0
3 Woodinville High School Woodinville High School Falcons 0–0
4 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 0–0
5 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 0–0
6 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 0–0
7 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 0–0
8 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 0–0
8 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,164 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 36 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.546 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Sehome High School
Mariners V		15.92
school +0.55		Liam Hood / Quinn Shultis 2.15
Jeffrey Werner / Peyton Nienaber 2.09
Shea Walker / Mallory Hood 1.06		65%10–3 (77%)+1.6
2Bainbridge High School
Spartans		25.87
school +0.13		Caelan Juckniess / Sophia Kasper 1.89
Karl Anderson / Elizabeth Rolfes 1.34
Blake Bentzen / Nicole Sanford 2.44		64%9–4 (69%)+0.6
3Woodinville High School
Falcons		35.79Erik Skeel / Nicolai Blasdel 1.95
Karl Skeel / Kristan Lund 1.94
Tim Player / Henry Barrow 1.83		62%6–7 (46%)−2.1
4Orcas High School
Vikings		45.00Domicick Wareham / Maggie Toombs 1.14
Wylie Kau / Matia Schwartz 1.99 6–4
Axel Greening / Jadyn Kopp 1.87 4–4
Axel Greening / Millie Kau 1.58 3–2
Wylie Kau / Millie Kau 1.82 1–2		45%7–6 (54%)+1.2
5Lincoln High School - Portland, OR
Cardinals		54.00
school −0.38		Matthew Reynolds / Mia Dalton 1.96
Riley Read / Olivia Weissflog
Ian Stewart / Rebecca Reynolds		29%3–7 (30%)+0.1
7North Kitsap High School
Dogfish		63.71
school −0.25		Liam Sherry / Julia Sherry 1.73
Morgan Chapman / Alaina Marcotte 0.25
Maddie Ekin / Anna Sherry 1.87 1–7
Maddie Ekin / Alex Ashley 1.81 0–2		24%1–9 (10%)−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Sehome High School5.926.7510–38.4+0.830.726%
4Orcas High School5.005.517–65.8+0.520.334%
2Bainbridge High School5.876.189–48.4+0.310.148%
5Lincoln High School - Portland, OR4.004.103–72.9+0.100.059%
3Woodinville High School5.794.866–78.1−0.941.194%
7North Kitsap High School3.712.281–92.4−1.431.094%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jeffrey WernerSehome High School2.092.9210–38.4+0.830.726%
Wylie KauOrcas High School1.992.517–65.8+0.520.334%
Axel GreeningOrcas High School1.872.397–65.8+0.520.334%
Domicick WarehamOrcas High School1.141.667–65.8+0.520.334%
Karl AndersonBainbridge High School1.341.659–48.4+0.310.148%
Blake BentzenBainbridge High School2.442.759–48.4+0.310.148%
Ian StewartLincoln High School - Portland, OR0.931.033–72.9+0.100.059%
Tim PlayerWoodinville High School1.830.896–78.1−0.941.194%
Liam SherryNorth Kitsap High School1.730.301–92.4−1.431.094%
Morgan ChapmanNorth Kitsap High School0.25-1.181–92.4−1.431.094%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
12Bainbridge High SchoolOrcas High School70%
14Sehome High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR84%
17Bainbridge High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR82%
110Woodinville High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School84%
112Bainbridge High SchoolSehome High School49%upset
113Orcas High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School71%
117Lincoln High School - Portland, ORNorth Kitsap High School55%
122Bainbridge High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School84%
124Sehome High SchoolWoodinville High School53%
127Woodinville High SchoolOrcas High School66%
130Woodinville High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR80%
132Sehome High SchoolOrcas High School65%
133Woodinville High SchoolBainbridge High School48%upset
135Orcas High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR70%
136Sehome High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School85%
238Orcas High SchoolBainbridge High School32%upset
240Sehome High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR81%
243Bainbridge High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR80%
246North Kitsap High SchoolWoodinville High School17%upset
248Bainbridge High SchoolSehome High School49%upset
249Orcas High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School71%
253Lincoln High School - Portland, ORNorth Kitsap High School56%
258Bainbridge High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School83%
260Sehome High SchoolWoodinville High School53%
263Woodinville High SchoolOrcas High School65%
266Lincoln High School - Portland, ORWoodinville High School21%upset
268Sehome High SchoolOrcas High School65%
269Bainbridge High SchoolWoodinville High School51%
271Orcas High SchoolLincoln High School - Portland, OR69%
272Sehome High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School85%
473Woodinville High SchoolBainbridge High School49%upset
474Orcas High SchoolSehome High School35%upset
475Orcas High SchoolWoodinville High School35%upset
476Sehome High SchoolBainbridge High School51%
477Bainbridge High SchoolOrcas High School67%
478Sehome High SchoolWoodinville High School52%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
2 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-5-6
3 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-3 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 4-5-6
4 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-4 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-5-6
5 Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-4 def. Olympia High School Bears 1-5-6
6 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-3-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-4-6
7 Bainbridge High School Spartans 2-3-4 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-5-6
8 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-3 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 4-5-6
9 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-6 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-4-5
10 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-6
11 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-6 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-5
12 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 3-5-6
13 Orcas High School Vikings 2-3-4 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-5-6
14 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-3-4 def. Olympia High School Bears 2-5-6
15 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-5 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-6
16 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
17 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-6
18 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-5 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-6
19 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-4-6
20 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-5
21 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-5 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-6
22 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-5-6
23 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-5
24 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-4-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-6
25 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-5-6
26 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-5
27 Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-4 def. Orcas High School Vikings 1-5-6
28 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-3-6 def. Olympia High School Bears 2-4-5
29 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
30 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-5-6
31 Olympia High School Bears 1-3-6 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-4-5
32 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-3-6 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2-4-5
33 Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-5-6
34 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-4 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-5-6
35 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-5
36 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-3-6 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-4-5
37 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
38 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-6 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-4-5
39 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-2-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-6
40 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-5 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-6
41 Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-5 def. Olympia High School Bears 1-4-6
42 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-4 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-5-6
43 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-4-5 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-6
44 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-3-5 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 2-4-6
45 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-6 def. Olympia High School Bears 3-4-5
46 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-3-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 1-4-6
47 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-2-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-5
48 Bainbridge High School Spartans 2-3-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 1-5-6
49 Orcas High School Vikings 1-3-4 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-5-6
50 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-4 def. Olympia High School Bears 1-5-6
51 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-5-6
52 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
53 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-3 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 4-5-6
54 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-4 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-5-6
55 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-6 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-4-5
56 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
57 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 4-5-6
58 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-6
59 Orcas High School Vikings 2-3-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-5-6
60 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-6
61 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-6
62 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-5-6
63 Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-4 def. Orcas High School Vikings 1-5-6
64 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-4-5 def. Olympia High School Bears 2-3-6
65 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-5-6
66 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-6 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-5
67 Olympia High School Bears 1-4-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-3-6
68 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-6 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-4-5
69 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-4-6 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-5 DSQ
70 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-6
71 Orcas High School Vikings 2-3-5 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-4-6
72 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-3-4 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-5-6
73 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 3-5-6
74 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-6 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 3-4-5
75 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-6
76 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-4-5 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 2-3-6
77 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-4-6
78 Sehome High School Mariners V 1-2-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-6

Conditions — 05/21/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1008.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From SSW (196°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1008.5 hPa Rain0.22 in

What this breeze does at Anacortes — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Anacortes in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Anacortes by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Anacortes, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →