Orcas High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 (fleet 1.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–11 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–6 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 9–8 against 7.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-21 | NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity | skipper | 1.14 | 1.66 | 7–6 | 5.8 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2015-10-24 | Orcas Trick or Treat | skipper | 0.96 | 2.00 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.04 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Team Race Championship Varsity | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Orcas Trick or Treat | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.4 | 0.28 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Silverdale Team Race Varsity | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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