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Orcas Trick or Treat

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 0–0
2 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners V 1 0–0
3 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 0–0
4 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 0–0
5 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 0–0
5 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 0–0
7 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 0–0
8 Woodinville High School Woodinville High School Falcons 0–0
9 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 0–0
10 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 0–0
11 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners V 2 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,441 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 16 matches (50%) with a log-loss of 0.727 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.09 ± 0.65: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Bainbridge High School
Spartans		44.29
school +0.10		Caelan Juckniess / Banning Jones 1.69 1–1
Elizabeth Rolfes / Sophia Kasper 1.29 1–1
Caelan Juckniess / Sophia Kasper 1.72 1–0
Olivia Mitchell / Banning Jones 1–0
Elizabeth Rolfes / Sophie Lewis 1.25 1–0
Olivia Mitchell / Taylor Lhamon 0–1
Olivia Mitchell / Sophie Lewis 1–0		55%2–1 (67%)+0.4
2Sehome High School
Mariners V 1		33.94
school +0.52		Shea Walker / Mallory Hood 0.67
Liam Hood / Lera Anders 2.10 3–0
Benjamin Starks / Peyton Nienaber 3–0
Liam Hood / Peyton Nienaber 2.06 1–1
Benjamin Starks / Lera Anders 1–1		61%4–1 (80%)+0.9
3Orcas High School
Vikings 1		24.11
school +0.05, home +0.13		Axel Greening / Aristotle Luna 1.60
Maggie Toombs / Jadyn Kopp 1.39
Michael Chesher / Matia Schwartz 0.92		64%4–1 (80%)+0.8
5Orcas High School
Vikings 2		62.85
school +0.05, home +0.13		Domicick Wareham / Ronan Kau 0.96
Ronan Rankin / Sandy Rost 0.28
Wylie Kau / Kajetan Bullock 1.68 1–1
Kajetan Bullock / Mccabe Webb 1.11 1–1		32%2–2 (50%)+0.7
5Olympia High School
Bears		72.50Konrad Brine
Elena Gonick / Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson 1.18 1–1
Max Miller / Leo Brine 1–1
Elena Gonick 1.16 1–1
Max Miller 1–1		26%2–2 (50%)+0.9
8Woodinville High School
Falcons		14.68
school +0.27		Tim Player / Henry Barrow 1–1
Nicolai Blasdel / Miles Williams 1–1
Margot Watts / Marijke Jorna 1.09 0–2
Tim Player 0–2
Margot Watts / Cameron Comnenos 1.12 1–1
Nicolai Blasdel / Marijke Jorna 0–2
Nicolai Blasdel / Henry Barrow 0–1
Erik Skeel / Miles Williams 1.65 0–1
Karl Skeel 1.58 0–1		74%1–4 (20%)−2.7
9Oak Harbor High School
Wildcats		52.74Max Van Dam / Matt Dixon 0.98
Austin Hauter / Dylan Angell 0.89
Jordan Wood-Pina / Matt Hallahan 0.89		34%1–5 (17%)−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
5Olympia High School Bears2.503.882–21.1+1.390.828%
2Sehome High School Mariners V 13.945.274–13.1+1.330.734%
3Orcas High School Vikings 14.115.204–13.2+1.080.541%
5Orcas High School Vikings 22.853.882–21.3+1.040.437%
1Bainbridge High School Spartans4.295.012–11.6+0.720.158%
9Oak Harbor High School Wildcats2.741.421–52.0−1.330.793%
8Woodinville High School Falcons4.681.421–43.7−3.264.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Max MillerOlympia High School1.062.452–21.1+1.390.828%
Benjamin StarksSehome High School0.661.994–13.1+1.330.734%
Axel GreeningOrcas High School1.602.684–13.2+1.080.541%
Maggie ToombsOrcas High School1.392.474–13.2+1.080.541%
Michael ChesherOrcas High School0.922.004–13.2+1.080.541%
Domicick WarehamOrcas High School0.962.002–21.3+1.040.437%
Ronan RankinOrcas High School0.281.322–21.3+1.040.437%
Austin HauterOak Harbor High School0.89-0.441–52.0−1.330.793%
Tim PlayerWoodinville High School1.70-1.321–33.1−3.023.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Oak Harbor High School WildcatsWoodinville High School Falcons19%upset
15Sehome High School Mariners V 1Woodinville High School Falcons36%upset
19Woodinville High School FalconsOlympia High School Bears84%
111Orcas High School Vikings 1Oak Harbor High School Wildcats74%
115Orcas High School Vikings 2Woodinville High School Falcons24%upset
116Orcas High School Vikings 1Sehome High School Mariners V 154%
120Olympia High School BearsOrcas High School Vikings 122%upset
124Orcas High School Vikings 1Orcas High School Vikings 269%
127Bainbridge High School SpartansWoodinville High School Falcons35%upset
128Sehome High School Mariners V 1Oak Harbor High School Wildcats72%
132Olympia High School BearsOak Harbor High School Wildcats45%upset
135Orcas High School Vikings 1Bainbridge High School Spartans47%upset
136Orcas High School Vikings 2Oak Harbor High School Wildcats46%upset
137Sehome High School Mariners V 1Olympia High School Bears76%
141Sehome High School Mariners V 1Orcas High School Vikings 275%
144Bainbridge High School SpartansOak Harbor High School Wildcats77%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-6
2 Bellingham High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-5
3 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-3 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2 4-5-6
4 Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 4-5-6
5 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 1-2-6 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-5
6 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-3 def. Bellingham High School Raiders 4-5-6
7 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-5 def. Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-4-6
8 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 4-5-6
9 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-3-6 def. Olympia High School Bears 2-4-5
10 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 1-3-6 def. Bellingham High School Raiders 2-4-5
11 Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
12 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-6
13 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 4-5-6
14 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-5 def. Bellingham High School Raiders 3-4-6
15 Orcas High School Vikings 2 1-3-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 2-4-6
16 Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-3-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 1 2-4-6
17 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-3-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-4-6
18 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 4-5-6
19 Orcas High School Vikings 2 1-2-6 def. Bellingham High School Raiders 3-4-5
20 Olympia High School Bears 2-3-5 def. Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-4-6
21 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-3 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 4-5-6
22 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-4-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 1 2-3-6
23 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 3-4-6
24 Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-2-5 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2 3-4-6
25 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-3-4 def. Bellingham High School Raiders 2-5-6
26 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-4 def. Olympia High School Bears 3-5-6
27 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-4-5 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 2-3-6
28 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 1-3-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-4-6
29 Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-3-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-4-6
30 Orcas High School Vikings 2 1-3-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2-4-5
31 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-4 def. Bellingham High School Raiders 3-5-6
32 Olympia High School Bears 2-3-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-4-6
33 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 4-5-6
34 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1-2-6 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-5
35 Orcas High School Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Bainbridge High School Spartans 4-5-6
36 Orcas High School Vikings 2 1-2-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-5
37 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 2-3-4 def. Olympia High School Bears 1-5-6
38 Woodinville High School Falcons 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 4-5-6
39 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-6 def. Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3-4-5
40 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-3-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-5-6
41 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 1-2-3 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2 4-5-6
42 Bellingham High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Woodinville High School Falcons 3-4-5
43 Olympia High School Bears 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners V 2 3-5-6
44 Bainbridge High School Spartans 1-2-5 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-4-6
45 Sehome High School Mariners V 1 1-2-3 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 4-5-6

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 10.9 kn
From N (9°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.3 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1014.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Orcas — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Orcas in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Orcas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Orcas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →